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The twenty imports Zambia is best placed to replace.

Zambia imported USD 8.5bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 12bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 1.1bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
58products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
225products Zambia already exports well
168product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Zambia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Zambia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Zambia does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105HS 310590

    Comes fromSouth Africa 85%, 32 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing... (exports USD 81m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 996k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 111m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 120m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 120mup 37% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromUnited Arab Emirates 22%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing... (exports USD 81m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 279k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 73m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 183m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3).

    USD 183mup 3% on 2022
  3. 3

    Beer: made from maltHS 220300

    Comes fromSouth Africa 93%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or... (exports USD 124m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 139k
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 41m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 41mup 23% on 2022
  4. 4

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromIndia 49%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWashing and cleaning preparations: surface-active, whether or not...
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 179m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); India supplies 49 per cent (1).

    USD 179mdown 6% on 2022
  5. 5

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromSouth Africa 49%, 42 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel: grinding balls and similar articles for mills, forged... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 83m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1); South Africa supplies 49 per cent (1).

    USD 83mup 204% on 2022
  6. 6

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromSouth Africa 97%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 591k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 186k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 13m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 39m, top 26 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 39mdown 15% on 2022
  7. 7

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromZimbabwe 96%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped (exports USD 296m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 31 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); Zimbabwe supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 34mfrom USD 1m in 2022
  8. 8

    Machines, for sorting, screening, separating, washing, crushing etc mineral substances, for agglomerating, shaping or...HS 847490

    Comes fromSouth Africa 36%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEngines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 195m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 109m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1).

    USD 109mup 76% on 2022
  9. 9

    Mechanical shovels, excavators and shovel loaders: n.e.c. in item no. 8429.50HS 842959

    Comes fromJapan 36%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEngines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 126m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 62m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2).

    USD 62mup 79% on 2022
  10. 10

    Odoriferous substances and mixtures: of a kind used in the food or drink industriesHS 330210

    Comes fromSouth Africa 58%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 542k
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 49m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); South Africa supplies 58 per cent (1).

    USD 49mup 39% on 2022
  11. 11

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390110

    Comes fromSouth Africa 53%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 591k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 83m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 41m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1); South Africa supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 41mdown 10% on 2022
  12. 12

    Tanker trailers and tanker semi-trailersHS 871631

    Comes fromSouth Africa 75%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of... (exports USD 36m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 195k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 55m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 37m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); South Africa supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 37mup 55% on 2022
  13. 13

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromSouth Africa 53%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthYeasts: active (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 41 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 25mup 18% on 2022
  14. 14

    Anionic organic surface-active agents (other than soap): linear alkylbenzene sulphonic acids and their salts, whether...HS 340231

    Comes fromSouth Korea 43%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWashing and cleaning preparations: powders, flakes and granules... (exports USD 80m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 42k
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 42 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); South Korea supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 25mdown 33% on 2022
  15. 15

    Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higherHS 390761

    Comes fromChina 80%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 591k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 21m, top 49 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); China supplies 80 per cent (2).

    USD 21mdown 28% on 2022
  16. 16

    Iron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (not seamless), n.e.c. in chapter 73HS 730690

    Comes fromSouth Africa 86%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel: grinding balls and similar articles for mills, forged... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 215k
    Countries that export it well36

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 19m, top 53 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 86 per cent (2).

    USD 19mup 237% on 2022
  17. 17

    Plastics: tubes, pipes and hoses thereof, rigid, of polymers of ethyleneHS 391721

    Comes fromSouth Africa 86%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 591k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 746k
    Countries that export it well40

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 15m, top 62 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 86 per cent (2).

    USD 15mup 141% on 2022
  18. 18

    Salt (including table salt and denatured salt): pure sodium chloride whether or not in aqueous solution: sea waterHS 250100

    Comes fromBotswana 75%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially... (exports USD 143m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 39k
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 12m, top 78 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); Botswana supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 12mup 6% on 2022
  19. 19

    Sauces and preparations therefor: mixed condiments and mixed seasoningsHS 210390

    Comes fromSouth Africa 87%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthYeasts: active (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 174k
    Countries that export it well45

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 12m, top 80 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); South Africa supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 12mup 2% on 2022
  20. 20

    Boring or sinking machinery: parts for boring or sinking machinery of subheading 8430.41 or 8430.49HS 843143

    Comes fromSouth Africa 45%, 44 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEngines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 128m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 33m, top 32 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Zambia's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); South Africa supplies 45 per cent (1).

    USD 33mup 0% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Zambia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods imports USD 231m, exports USD 36m, top source Japan 41%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or... imports USD 94m, exports USD 7m, top source South Africa 49%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate... imports USD 48m, exports USD 7m, top source Tanzania 28%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, double salts and mixtures of... imports USD 25m, exports USD 641k, top source South Africa 82%
  • Chemical products, mixtures and preparations: consisting mainly of... imports USD 24m, exports USD 735k, top source Namibia 96%
  • Magnesia, fused or dead-burned (sintered): whether or not containing small... imports USD 28m, exports USD 6m, top source United States 25%
  • Engines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines (diesel or... imports USD 30m, exports USD 10m, top source South Africa 49%
  • Iron or steel: grinding balls and similar articles for mills, forged or... imports USD 29m, exports USD 10m, top source China 53%
  • Chemical products, mixtures and preparations: n.e.c. heading 3824 imports USD 72m, exports USD 58m, top source South Africa 37%
  • Electric detonators imports USD 14m, exports USD 811k, top source South Africa 46%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 168 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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