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The twenty imports Ukraine is best placed to replace.

Ukraine imported USD 58bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 19bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 3.8bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
340products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
592products Ukraine already exports well
881product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Ukraine already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Ukraine would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Ukraine does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Military weapons: artillery weapons (e.g. guns, howitzers, and mortars)HS 930110

    Comes fromPoland 93%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAmmunition: n.e.c. in chapter 93 (exports USD 107m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 229m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 489m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Poland supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 489mup 85% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromPoland 33%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSauces: tomato ketchup and other tomato sauces
    Exports of this lineUSD 328k; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 308m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 412m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3).

    USD 412mup 120% on 2022
  3. 3

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not...HS 721049

    Comes fromTurkey 81%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy... (exports USD 555m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 30m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 321m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 184m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Turkey supplies 81 per cent (2).

    USD 184mup 110% on 2022
  4. 4

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromAzerbaijan 37%, 27 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 232m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 177m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3).

    USD 177mup 99% on 2022
  5. 5

    Footwear: (other than sportswear), with outer soles of rubber or plastics and uppers of textile materialsHS 640419

    Comes fromChina 46%, 68 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: parts, n.e.c. in heading 6406 (exports USD 54m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 13m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 133m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 133mup 110% on 2022
  6. 6

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromPoland 47%, 37 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel (excluding cast iron): seamless, (excluding... (exports USD 194m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 60m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 41m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 60m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Poland supplies 47 per cent (1).

    USD 60mup 33% on 2022
  7. 7

    Waters: mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter...HS 220110

    Comes fromGeorgia 82%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthUndenatured ethyl alcohol: of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80%... (exports USD 89m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 49 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Georgia supplies 82 per cent (2).

    USD 25mfrom USD 3m in 2022
  8. 8

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromPoland 22%, 68 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIce cream and other edible ice: whether or not containing cocoa (exports USD 41m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 41m
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 285m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2).

    USD 285mup 92% on 2022
  9. 9

    Dog or cat food: put up for retail sale, used in animal feedingHS 230910

    Comes fromPoland 27%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthOil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the... (exports USD 992m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 27m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 145m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 246m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2).

    USD 246mup 23% on 2022
  10. 10

    Unmanned aircraft: for remote-controlled flight only, for other than for carriage of passengers, with the maximum...HS 880623

    Comes fromPoland 51%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHelicopters, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 2000kg (exports USD 11m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 1.3bn
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 208m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); Poland supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 208mfrom USD 10m in 2022
  11. 11

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorriesHS 401120

    Comes fromChina 56%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), hygienic or... (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 317m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 186m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 56 per cent (1).

    USD 186mup 40% on 2022
  12. 12

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity...HS 870331

    Comes fromRomania 43%, 32 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 4.0bn
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 182m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); Romania supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 182mup 88% on 2022
  13. 13

    Washing and cleaning preparations: powders, flakes and granules, surface-active, whether or not containing soap...HS 340250

    Comes fromPoland 30%, 46 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSoap and organic surface-active products: in the form of bars... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 22m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 104m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 180m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2).

    USD 180mup 38% on 2022
  14. 14

    Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than...HS 853710

    Comes fromPoland 31%, 72 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 1.1bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 80m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 53m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 178m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2).

    USD 178mup 235% on 2022
  15. 15

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromChina 54%, 34 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 1.1bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 92m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 165m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); China supplies 54 per cent (1).

    USD 165mup 64% on 2022
  16. 16

    Combine harvester-threshersHS 843351

    Comes fromGermany 43%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFurniture incorporating refrigerating or freezing equipment: for... (exports USD 59m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 122m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 153m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); Germany supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 153mdown 9% on 2022
  17. 17

    Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)HS 871639

    Comes fromGermany 36%, 35 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 85m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 146m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2).

    USD 146mdown 25% on 2022
  18. 18

    Clothing: worn, and other worn articlesHS 630900

    Comes fromUnited Kingdom 39%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFurnishing articles: excluding those of heading no. 9404, n.e.c. in... (exports USD 58m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 145m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2).

    USD 145mdown 3% on 2022
  19. 19

    Iron or steel: articles n.e.c. in heading 7326HS 732690

    Comes fromPoland 17%, 79 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel (excluding cast iron): seamless, (excluding... (exports USD 194m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 61m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 139m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2).

    USD 139mup 91% on 2022
  20. 20

    Vehicles: break-down lorries, road-sweepers, spraying lorries, mobile workshops, mobile radiological units, and other...HS 870590

    Comes fromGermany 15%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 98m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 138m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ukraine's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2).

    USD 138mup 103% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Ukraine already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Ammunition: n.e.c. in chapter 93 imports USD 2.8bn, exports USD 107m, top source Poland 66%
  • Seeders, planters and transplanters: other than no-till direct seeders... imports USD 108m, exports USD 5m, top source Germany 56%
  • Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not... imports USD 226m, exports USD 140m, top source Hungary 35%
  • Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and... imports USD 139m, exports USD 60m, top source Poland 31%
  • Washing machines: household or laundry-type, fully-automatic, (of a dry linen... imports USD 118m, exports USD 45m, top source China 47%
  • Steel, alloy: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, not in coils imports USD 72m, exports USD 12m, top source Hungary 29%
  • Helicopters, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 2000kg imports USD 66m, exports USD 11m, top source Germany 89%
  • Harrows: (excluding disc), scarifiers, cultivators, weeders and hoes imports USD 53m, exports USD 4m, top source Czech Republic 28%
  • Paper and paperboard: coated, impregnated or covered with plastics (excluding... imports USD 65m, exports USD 18m, top source Poland 27%
  • Iron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or... imports USD 66m, exports USD 21m, top source Turkey 75%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 881 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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