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The twenty imports Tajikistan is best placed to replace.

Tajikistan imported USD 5.2bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 189m. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 849mthe twenty, imported in 2024
50products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
114products Tajikistan already exports well
106product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Tajikistan already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Tajikistan would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Tajikistan does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves...HS 721420

    Comes fromKazakhstan 95%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFerrous waste and scrap: n.e.c. in heading no. 7204 (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well45

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 128m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3); Kazakhstan supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 128mup 350% on 2022
  2. 2

    Footwear: with uppers of leather or composition leather, n.e.c. in chapter 64HS 640510

    Comes fromChina 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 63m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 63mup 406% on 2022
  3. 3

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 98%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 7k
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 138m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); China supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 138mup 11% on 2022
  4. 4

    Aluminium oxide: other than artificial corundumHS 281820

    Comes fromKazakhstan 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMercury (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 68m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Kazakhstan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 68mup 31% on 2022
  5. 5

    Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles: of man-made fibres, knitted or crochetedHS 611030

    Comes fromChina 99%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 2k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 43m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 43mup 234% on 2022
  6. 6

    Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matterHS 170199

    Comes fromPakistan 53%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well44

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); Pakistan supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 29mup 326% on 2022
  7. 7

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromUzbekistan 100%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 11m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 24m, top 33 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); Uzbekistan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 24mfrom USD 1m in 2022
  8. 8

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromIndia 46%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRodenticides and other similar products n.e.c. in heading no....
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 53m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); India supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 53mup 39% on 2022
  9. 9

    Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not fitted with connectorsHS 854449

    Comes fromChina 75%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: alloys, hollow profiles
    Exports of this lineUSD 98k
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 34mup 72% on 2022
  10. 10

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted, varnished or coated with plasticsHS 721070

    Comes fromChina 95%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFerrous waste and scrap: n.e.c. in heading no. 7204 (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 78k
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 33m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); China supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 33mdown 65% on 2022
  11. 11

    Brassieres: whether or not knitted or crochetedHS 621210

    Comes fromChina 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or... (exports USD 14m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 31m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 31mdown 41% on 2022
  12. 12

    Footwear: (other than sportswear), with outer soles of rubber or plastics and uppers of textile materialsHS 640419

    Comes fromChina 98%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 1k
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 30m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); China supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 30mup 57% on 2022
  13. 13

    Hosiery and footwear: without applied soles, of cotton, knitted or crocheted (excluding graduated compression hosiery...HS 611595

    Comes fromChina 96%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: women's or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 90k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 20m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 26 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); China supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 29mup 136% on 2022
  14. 14

    Textiles: made up articles (including dress patterns), n.e.c. in chapter 63, n.e.c. in heading no. 6307HS 630790

    Comes fromUzbekistan 97%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSacks and bags: of a kind used for the packing of goods, of man-made... (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3k
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 28m, top 27 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); Uzbekistan supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 28mfrom USD 426k in 2022
  15. 15

    Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and similar articles, of any materialHS 961900

    Comes fromTurkey 85%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 59k
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 21m, top 36 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 21mup 22% on 2022
  16. 16

    T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of cotton, knitted or crochetedHS 610910

    Comes fromChina 74%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 83k
    Countries that export it well38

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 15m, top 63 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); China supplies 74 per cent (2).

    USD 15mup 221% on 2022
  17. 17

    Shirts: men's or boys', of man-made fibres, knitted or crochetedHS 610520

    Comes fromChina 100%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or...
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well38

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 15m, top 65 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 15mfrom USD 2m in 2022
  18. 18

    Asbestos: other than crocidolite (blue asbestos)HS 252490

    Comes fromKazakhstan 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially... (exports USD 8m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 14m, top 73 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); Kazakhstan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 14mup 52% on 2022
  19. 19

    Machines, for sorting, screening, separating, washing, crushing etc mineral substances, for agglomerating, shaping or...HS 847490

    Comes fromChina 98%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTurbo-jets: of a thrust not exceeding 25kN (exports USD 313k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5k
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 25 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 29mup 24% on 2022
  20. 20

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromChina 96%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 26m, top 30 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Tajikistan's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); China supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 26mdown 25% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Tajikistan already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding imports USD 28m, exports USD 4m, top source Uzbekistan 86%
  • Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of... imports USD 22m, exports USD 14m, top source China 86%
  • Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other... imports USD 15m, exports USD 13m, top source Kazakhstan 97%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 106 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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