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The twenty imports South Africa is best placed to replace.

South Africa imported USD 72bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 60bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 6.4bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
415products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
823products South Africa already exports well
1123product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing South Africa already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in South Africa would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and South Africa does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Nickel: nickel mattesHS 750110

    Comes fromZimbabwe 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthNickel: unwrought, not alloyed (exports USD 584m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 34m
    Countries that export it well6

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 985m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); Zimbabwe supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 985mfrom USD 2m in 2022
  2. 2

    Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mmHS 740811

    Comes fromUnited Arab Emirates 72%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: unrefined, copper anodes for electrolytic refining (exports USD 394m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 32m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 457m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); United Arab Emirates supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 457mup 8% on 2022
  3. 3

    Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 15,000kgHS 880240

    Comes fromUnited States 68%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAircraft and spacecraft: parts thereof n.e.c. in chapter 88 (exports USD 34m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 27m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 153m
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 277m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); United States supplies 68 per cent (2).

    USD 277mup 3% on 2022
  4. 4

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: ammonium dihydrogenorthophosphate (monoammonium phosphate) and mixtures thereof with...HS 310540

    Comes fromRussia 79%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 144m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 58m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 199m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Russia supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 199mdown 5% on 2022
  5. 5

    Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including driver), with only compression-ignition...HS 870210

    Comes fromJapan 85%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston... (exports USD 5.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 47m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 154m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Japan supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 154mup 96% on 2022
  6. 6

    Insulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets of a kind used in vehicles, aircraft or shipsHS 854430

    Comes fromBotswana 71%, 84 source countries
    Nearest export strengthReception and transmission apparatus: aerials and aerial reflectors... (exports USD 97m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 387m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 143m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); Botswana supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 143mdown 17% on 2022
  7. 7

    Waters: mineral and aerated, including natural or artificial, (not containing added sugar or other sweetening matter...HS 220110

    Comes fromLesotho 97%, 53 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less (exports USD 436m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 84m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); Lesotho supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 84mfrom USD 2m in 2022
  8. 8

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromSwitzerland 87%, 36 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not... (exports USD 31m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 88m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 83m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Switzerland supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 83mup 14% on 2022
  9. 9

    Wood: coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed...HS 440711

    Comes fromEswatini 99%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: for fuel, in chips or particles, non-coniferous, whether or... (exports USD 191m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 53m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 24m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 70m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); Eswatini supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 70mdown 2% on 2022
  10. 10

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromIndia 40%, 90 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMedicaments: containing penicillins, streptomycins or their... (exports USD 49m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 307m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 443m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); India supplies 40 per cent (1).

    USD 1.4bnup 4% on 2022
  11. 11

    Aluminium oxide: other than artificial corundumHS 281820

    Comes fromAustralia 98%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSulphates: of copper (exports USD 192m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 666m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); Australia supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 666mup 22% on 2022
  12. 12

    Odoriferous substances and mixtures: of a kind used in the food or drink industriesHS 330210

    Comes fromEswatini 74%, 83 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHair preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3305 (exports USD 106m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 113m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 136m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 480m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); Eswatini supplies 74 per cent (2).

    USD 480mup 6% on 2022
  13. 13

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 32%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 144m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 44m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 92m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 324m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3).

    USD 324mdown 66% on 2022
  14. 14

    Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodesHS 740311

    Comes fromZambia 56%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: unrefined, copper anodes for electrolytic refining (exports USD 394m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 241m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 197m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); Zambia supplies 56 per cent (1).

    USD 197mdown 0% on 2022
  15. 15

    Footwear: (other than sportswear), with outer soles of rubber or plastics and uppers of textile materialsHS 640419

    Comes fromChina 66%, 84 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: n.e.c. in chapter 64 (exports USD 14m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 21m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 77m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 187m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); China supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 187mdown 21% on 2022
  16. 16

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390110

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 41%, 40 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPropylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms (exports USD 280m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 88m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 287m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 182m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); Saudi Arabia supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 182mdown 13% on 2022
  17. 17

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chlorideHS 310420

    Comes fromRussia 39%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 144m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 124m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3).

    USD 124mdown 54% on 2022
  18. 18

    Spirits obtained by distilling grape wine or grape marcHS 220820

    Comes fromFrance 95%, 35 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or less (exports USD 436m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 29m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 180m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 124m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); France supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 124mup 56% on 2022
  19. 19

    Carbonates: disodium carbonateHS 283620

    Comes fromBotswana 68%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSulphates: of copper (exports USD 192m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 56m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 119m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Botswana supplies 68 per cent (2).

    USD 119mdown 24% on 2022
  20. 20

    Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or strippedHS 240120

    Comes fromZambia 51%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: smoking, other than water pipe tobacco, whether or not... (exports USD 31m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 24m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 116m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to South Africa's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Zambia supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 116mup 129% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products South Africa already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Inorganic or organic compounds of precious metals, n.e.c.: amalgams imports USD 517m, exports USD 89m, top source Germany 92%
  • Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, as specified in Subheading Note 2 to... imports USD 205m, exports USD 18m, top source Eswatini 99%
  • Machinery: parts of machines handling earth, minerals or ores and n.e.c. in... imports USD 379m, exports USD 232m, top source China 27%
  • Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on construction, mining or... imports USD 210m, exports USD 68m, top source Japan 30%
  • Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods imports USD 361m, exports USD 257m, top source Sweden 29%
  • Boring or sinking machinery: self-propelled, n.e.c. in heading no. 8430 imports USD 121m, exports USD 42m, top source Sweden 27%
  • Juice: apple, of a Brix value exceeding 20, unfermented, not containing added... imports USD 101m, exports USD 43m, top source China 99%
  • Graders and levellers imports USD 79m, exports USD 22m, top source China 56%
  • Fish preparations: sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or... imports USD 69m, exports USD 20m, top source Thailand 65%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium sulphate imports USD 61m, exports USD 12m, top source Germany 38%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 1123 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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