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The twenty imports Serbia is best placed to replace.

Serbia imported USD 35bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 28bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 3.8bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
121products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
960products Serbia already exports well
716product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Serbia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Serbia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Serbia does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromRussia 69%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing... (exports USD 121m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 9m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 45m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 127m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Russia supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 127mdown 47% on 2022
  2. 2

    Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mmHS 740811

    Comes fromGermany 88%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes (exports USD 1.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 252m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); Germany supplies 88 per cent (2).

    USD 252mdown 7% on 2022
  3. 3

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves...HS 721420

    Comes fromTurkey 42%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief... (exports USD 114m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 18m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 22m
    Countries that export it well45

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 203m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 203mup 93% on 2022
  4. 4

    Copper: unrefined, copper anodes for electrolytic refiningHS 740200

    Comes fromTurkey 75%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes (exports USD 1.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 523k
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 133m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); Turkey supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 133mup 447% on 2022
  5. 5

    Glass: carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials and other containers of glass, (not ampoules), used for the...HS 701090

    Comes fromCroatia 50%, 46 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGlassware: n.e.c. in heading no. 7013, other than of lead crystal (exports USD 70m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m
    Countries that export it well38

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 92m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Croatia supplies 50 per cent (1).

    USD 92mup 35% on 2022
  6. 6

    Wood: coniferous species, of fir (Abies spp.) and spruce (Picea spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled...HS 440712

    Comes fromBosnia and Herzegovina 79%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: beech (Fagus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or... (exports USD 57m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 55m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Bosnia and Herzegovina supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 55mdown 16% on 2022
  7. 7

    Aluminium: unwrought, alloysHS 760120

    Comes fromAustria 25%, 35 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: plates, sheets and strip, thickness exceeding 0.2mm... (exports USD 178m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 15m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 105m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 171m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (2).

    USD 171mup 43% on 2022
  8. 8

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted, varnished or coated with plasticsHS 721070

    Comes fromChina 42%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief... (exports USD 114m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 79m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 132m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); China supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 132mdown 12% on 2022
  9. 9

    Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and similar articles, of any materialHS 961900

    Comes fromPoland 36%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBrooms and brushes: consisting of twigs or other vegetable materials... (exports USD 9m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 98m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2).

    USD 98mup 22% on 2022
  10. 10

    T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of cotton, knitted or crochetedHS 610910

    Comes fromBangladesh 36%, 91 source countries
    Nearest export strengthHosiery: panty hose and tights (other than graduated compression... (exports USD 133m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 36m
    Countries that export it well38

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 82m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2).

    USD 82mup 14% on 2022
  11. 11

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromSlovenia 16%, 56 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMedicaments: containing corticosteroid hormones, their derivatives... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 362m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 138m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1).

    USD 1.1bnup 0% on 2022
  12. 12

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity...HS 870332

    Comes fromCzech Republic 33%, 43 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708 (exports USD 390m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 27m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 877m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 506m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1).

    USD 506mup 17% on 2022
  13. 13

    Plastics: other articles n.e.c. in chapter 39HS 392690

    Comes fromGermany 25%, 99 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: artificial guts (sausage casings) of hardened protein or... (exports USD 122m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 102m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 15m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 259m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1).

    USD 259mup 19% on 2022
  14. 14

    Electrical apparatus: parts suitable for use solely or principally with the apparatus of heading no. 8535, 8536 or 8537HS 853890

    Comes fromGermany 21%, 74 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 1.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 41m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 155m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1).

    USD 155mup 20% on 2022
  15. 15

    Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments...HS 330499

    Comes fromCroatia 15%, 66 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, other than cellular
    Exports of this lineUSD 31m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 29m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 100m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1).

    USD 100mup 36% on 2022
  16. 16

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromChina 52%, 39 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 1.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 51m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 81m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 81mup 21% on 2022
  17. 17

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of...HS 721391

    Comes fromBosnia and Herzegovina 53%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: in coils, without patterns in relief... (exports USD 114m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m
    Countries that export it well31

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 78m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Bosnia and Herzegovina supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 78mdown 20% on 2022
  18. 18

    Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or lessHS 220421

    Comes fromNorth Macedonia 42%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or... (exports USD 226m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 21m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 59m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); North Macedonia supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 59mup 45% on 2022
  19. 19

    Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoaHS 170490

    Comes fromTurkey 21%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing... (exports USD 60m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 54m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2).

    USD 54mup 34% on 2022
  20. 20

    Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620342

    Comes fromBangladesh 23%, 72 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBrassieres: whether or not knitted or crocheted (exports USD 49m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 21m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 45m, top 23 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Serbia's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2).

    USD 45mup 6% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Serbia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not... imports USD 305m, exports USD 135m, top source Turkey 14%
  • Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10 imports USD 249m, exports USD 142m, top source Germany 17%
  • Leather: further prepared after tanning or crusting, including... imports USD 117m, exports USD 10m, top source Italy 88%
  • Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped imports USD 133m, exports USD 30m, top source Belgium 65%
  • Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including... imports USD 126m, exports USD 25m, top source Turkey 68%
  • Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured imports USD 107m, exports USD 17m, top source Croatia 35%
  • Rubber: unvulcanised, compounded with carbon black or silica, in primary forms... imports USD 84m, exports USD 8m, top source Italy 33%
  • Vinyl chloride polymers: monofilament, of which any cross-sectional dimension... imports USD 81m, exports USD 6m, top source Germany 42%
  • Aluminium: alloys, bars, rods and profiles, other than hollow imports USD 106m, exports USD 34m, top source Turkey 21%
  • Moulds: for rubber or plastics, injection or compression types imports USD 92m, exports USD 26m, top source China 40%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 716 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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