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The twenty imports Russia is best placed to replace.

Russia imported USD 185bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 76bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 17bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
827products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
416products Russia already exports well
1760product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Russia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Russia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Russia does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Uranium: natural uranium and its compounds, alloys, dispersions (including cermets), ceramic products and mixtures...HS 284410

    Comes fromKazakhstan 97%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthUranium: enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds, alloys... (exports USD 2.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 45m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 1.9bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); Kazakhstan supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 1.9bnup 97% on 2022
  2. 2

    Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goodsHS 870410

    Comes fromChina 90%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 855k; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 2.2bn
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 578m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); China supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 578mup 129% on 2022
  3. 3

    Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including driver), with only compression-ignition...HS 870210

    Comes fromChina 99%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 53m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 327m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 327mup 98% on 2022
  4. 4

    Boring or sinking machinery: parts for boring or sinking machinery of subheading 8430.41 or 8430.49HS 843143

    Comes fromChina 95%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFuel elements (cartridges): non-irradiated (exports USD 865m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 15m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 918m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 287m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); China supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 287mup 27% on 2022
  5. 5

    Copper mattes: cement copper (precipitated copper)HS 740100

    Comes fromFinland 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes (exports USD 3.1bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 9m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 212m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); Finland supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 212mdown 67% on 2022
  6. 6

    Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1500 but...HS 870323

    Comes fromChina 93%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 44m; 10 more lines in the heading, USD 8.1bn
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 9.2bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); China supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 9.2bnup 286% on 2022
  7. 7

    Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708HS 870899

    Comes fromChina 65%, 37 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 125m; 14 more lines in the heading, USD 3.0bn
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 594m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); China supplies 65 per cent (2).

    USD 594mdown 32% on 2022
  8. 8

    Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and similar articles, of any materialHS 961900

    Comes fromChina 50%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIvory and articles thereof: worked (exports USD 224k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 150m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 561m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); China supplies 50 per cent (1).

    USD 561mdown 5% on 2022
  9. 9

    Iron or steel: articles n.e.c. in heading 7326HS 732690

    Comes fromChina 63%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSteel, stainless: (excluding cold-drawn or cold-rolled), tubes pipes... (exports USD 281m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 218m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 73m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 514m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 514mup 32% on 2022
  10. 10

    Bulldozers and angledozers: self-propelled, track layingHS 842911

    Comes fromChina 90%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFuel elements (cartridges): non-irradiated (exports USD 865m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 2.0bn
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 432m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); China supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 432mup 23% on 2022
  11. 11

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not...HS 721049

    Comes fromKazakhstan 68%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy... (exports USD 3.6bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 62m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 509m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 352m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); Kazakhstan supplies 68 per cent (2).

    USD 352mup 47% on 2022
  12. 12

    Washing machines: household or laundry-type, fully-automatic, (of a dry linen capacity not exceeding 10kg)HS 845011

    Comes fromChina 78%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFuel elements (cartridges): non-irradiated (exports USD 865m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 32m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 96m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 304m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 304mup 20% on 2022
  13. 13

    Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than...HS 853710

    Comes fromChina 68%, 37 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical insulators: of glass (exports USD 33m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 198m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 73m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 297m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); China supplies 68 per cent (2).

    USD 297mdown 30% on 2022
  14. 14

    Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)HS 871639

    Comes fromChina 54%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: mobile drilling derricks (exports USD 13m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 17m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 384m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 296m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); China supplies 54 per cent (1).

    USD 296mup 88% on 2022
  15. 15

    Machines, for sorting, screening, separating, washing, crushing etc mineral substances, for agglomerating, shaping or...HS 847490

    Comes fromChina 72%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFuel elements (cartridges): non-irradiated (exports USD 865m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 27m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 325m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 270m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (2); China supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 270mdown 25% on 2022
  16. 16

    Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or strippedHS 240120

    Comes fromBelgium 54%, 22 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: other than homogenised or reconstituted or smoking (exports USD 66m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 19m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 52m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 252m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Belgium supplies 54 per cent (1).

    USD 252mup 0% on 2022
  17. 17

    Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, cold-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or moreHS 720915

    Comes fromKazakhstan 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy... (exports USD 3.6bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 224k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 28m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 209m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); Kazakhstan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 209mup 13% on 2022
  18. 18

    Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: in blocks, slabs or bars, (not filled), weighing 2kg or lessHS 180632

    Comes fromGermany 65%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthChocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: n.e.c. in... (exports USD 354m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 70m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 99m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 176m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Germany supplies 65 per cent (2).

    USD 176mdown 11% on 2022
  19. 19

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromGermany 67%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: other than homogenised or reconstituted or smoking (exports USD 66m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 103m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 165m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Germany supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 165mup 46% on 2022
  20. 20

    Zinc: unwrought, (not alloyed), containing by weight 99.99% or more of zincHS 790111

    Comes fromKazakhstan 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSulphuric acid: oleum
    Exports of this lineUSD 467k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 142m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 164m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Russia's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3); Kazakhstan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 164mup 5% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Russia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Machines: for crushing or grinding earth, stone, ores or other mineral... imports USD 270m, exports USD 85m, top source China 77%
  • Iron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or... imports USD 138m, exports USD 29m, top source Kazakhstan 100%
  • Cyanides and cyanide oxides: of sodium imports USD 88m, exports USD 24m, top source China 100%
  • Railway or tramway locomotives or rolling stock: parts, axles and wheels, and... imports USD 150m, exports USD 88m, top source Kazakhstan 63%
  • Railway or tramway locomotives or rolling stock: parts, hooks and other... imports USD 35m, exports USD 17m, top source China 83%
  • Dryers: for agricultural products, not used for domestic purposes imports USD 25m, exports USD 8m, top source Germany 59%
  • Vegetable preparations: peas (pisum sativum), prepared or preserved otherwise... imports USD 24m, exports USD 14m, top source Hungary 60%
  • Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, drill pipe... imports USD 20m, exports USD 14m, top source China 100%
  • Metal-rolling mills: tube mills imports USD 15m, exports USD 10m, top source China 98%
  • Sound signalling equipment: electrical, used on cycles or motor vehicles... imports USD 23m, exports USD 22m, top source China 71%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 1760 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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