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The twenty imports Nigeria is best placed to replace.

Nigeria imported USD 33bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 6.2bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 4.0bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
292products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
133products Nigeria already exports well
604product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Nigeria already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Nigeria would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Nigeria does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing...HS 170114

    Comes fromBrazil 100%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, containing added... (exports USD 8m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 15k
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 718m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); Brazil supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 718mup 12% on 2022
  2. 2

    Wood, of tropical wood: as in Subheading note 2 to this Chapter, n.e.c. in heading no. 4408.31, sheets for veneer or...HS 440839

    Comes fromChina 100%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: charcoal of wood other than bamboo, nut or shell, whether or... (exports USD 44m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 149k
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 151m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 151mup 40% on 2022
  3. 3

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)HS 310530

    Comes fromMorocco 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not... (exports USD 975m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2k
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 109m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); Morocco supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 109mdown 28% on 2022
  4. 4

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 42%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPoly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity... (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 558k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 87m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 335m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Saudi Arabia supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 335mdown 10% on 2022
  5. 5

    Helicopters, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 2000kgHS 880212

    Comes fromTurkey 85%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 160m
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 220m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 220mfrom USD 4m in 2022
  6. 6

    Unused postage, revenue or similar stamps of current or new issue in the country in which they have, or will have, a...HS 490700

    Comes fromFrance 46%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 5k
    Countries that export it well40

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 173m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); France supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 173mup 457% on 2022
  7. 7

    Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higherHS 390761

    Comes fromChina 96%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPoly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity... (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 15m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 97m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 170m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); China supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 170mup 16% on 2022
  8. 8

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 94%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 847k
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 167m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2); China supplies 94 per cent (2).

    USD 167mdown 59% on 2022
  9. 9

    Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, printed, plain weave, weighing more than 100g/m2 but not...HS 520852

    Comes fromIndia 83%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton: garnetted stock waste (exports USD 807k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 292k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 234m
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 114m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); India supplies 83 per cent (2).

    USD 114mdown 17% on 2022
  10. 10

    Acyclic hydrocarbons: saturatedHS 290110

    Comes fromUnited States 91%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDerivatives of hydrocarbons: lithium perfluorooctane sulphonate... (exports USD 10k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 106m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); United States supplies 91 per cent (2).

    USD 106mup 342% on 2022
  11. 11

    Plasters: (consisting of calcined gypsum or calcium sulphate), whether or not coloured, with or without small...HS 252020

    Comes fromEgypt 76%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMineral substances: n.e.c. in chapter 25 (exports USD 160m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 53k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 25m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 78m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); Egypt supplies 76 per cent (2).

    USD 78mdown 4% on 2022
  12. 12

    T-shirts, singlets and other vests: of textile materials (other than cotton), knitted or crochetedHS 610990

    Comes fromChina 72%, 60 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSpices: n.e.c. in heading no. 0910
    Exports of this lineUSD 87k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 34m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 67m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); China supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 67mdown 20% on 2022
  13. 13

    Furnishing articles: excluding those of heading no. 9404, bed nets, specified in Subheading Note 1 to this ChapterHS 630420

    Comes fromVietnam 76%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 10k
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 59m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Vietnam supplies 76 per cent (2).

    USD 59mup 8% on 2022
  14. 14

    Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: women's or girls', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620462

    Comes fromChina 96%, 46 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 24k; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 103m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 53m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); China supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 53mup 51% on 2022
  15. 15

    Boring and sinking machinery: not self-propelledHS 843049

    Comes fromChina 92%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthLiquid elevators: parts thereof (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 208k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 24m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 52m, top 22 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); China supplies 92 per cent (2).

    USD 52mup 91% on 2022
  16. 16

    Fish preparations: sardines, sardinella and brisling or sprats, prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not...HS 160413

    Comes fromMorocco 81%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 37k
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 48m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Morocco supplies 81 per cent (2).

    USD 48mup 50% on 2022
  17. 17

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromIndia 61%, 59 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: for fuel, sawdust and wood waste and scrap, not agglomerated...
    Exports of this lineUSD 771k; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 227m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 409m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1); India supplies 61 per cent (2).

    USD 409mdown 26% on 2022
  18. 18

    Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, printedHS 540754

    Comes fromChina 99%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 14k; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 107m
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 408m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 34 per cent (1); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 408mfrom USD 4m in 2022
  19. 19

    Military weapons: other than revolvers, pistols, and arms of heading 9307, n.e.c. in heading 9301HS 930190

    Comes fromAzerbaijan 100%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 324m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 26 per cent (1); Azerbaijan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 324mfrom USD 8m in 2022
  20. 20

    Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products, for uses n.e.c. in heading no. 1901HS 190190

    Comes fromIreland 40%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 58m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 238m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Nigeria's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3).

    USD 238mdown 13% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Nigeria already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of less... imports USD 134m, exports USD 16m, top source China 97%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium sulphate imports USD 78m, exports USD 26m, top source China 100%
  • False beards, eyebrows and eyelashes, switches and the like: of synthetic... imports USD 25m, exports USD 8m, top source China 100%
  • Raw hides and skins: whole, unsplit, of bovine or equine animals, of a weight... imports USD 14m, exports USD 2m, top source Tanzania 24%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 604 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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