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The twenty imports Mexico is best placed to replace.

Mexico imported USD 491bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 567bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 28bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
708products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
732products Mexico already exports well
2376product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Mexico already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Mexico would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Mexico does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Plastics: other articles n.e.c. in chapter 39HS 392690

    Comes fromUnited States 61%, 91 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 518m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2.3bn; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 185m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 4.9bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); United States supplies 61 per cent (2).

    USD 4.9bnup 7% on 2022
  2. 2

    Iron or steel: articles n.e.c. in heading 7326HS 732690

    Comes fromUnited States 77%, 80 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308 (exports USD 1.6bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.6bn; 1 more line in the heading, USD 82m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 3.7bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); United States supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 3.7bndown 3% on 2022
  3. 3

    Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and electric motor for propulsion, incapable of...HS 870340

    Comes fromUnited States 61%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating... (exports USD 33bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 760m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 2.5bn
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.9bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); United States supplies 61 per cent (2).

    USD 1.9bnup 134% on 2022
  4. 4

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromUnited States 79%, 43 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 518m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 29m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 990m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); United States supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 1.4bnup 5% on 2022
  5. 5

    Paper and paperboard: cartons, boxes and cases, of corrugated paper or paperboardHS 481910

    Comes fromUnited States 86%, 57 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPaper and paperboard: coated, impregnated or covered with plastics... (exports USD 255m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 178m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 456m
    Countries that export it well46

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 847m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); United States supplies 86 per cent (2).

    USD 847mup 4% on 2022
  6. 6

    Trailers, semi-trailers and other vehicles not mechanically propelled: parts thereof for heading no. 8716HS 871690

    Comes fromUnited States 70%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating... (exports USD 33bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 221m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 234m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 839m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (2); United States supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 839mdown 20% on 2022
  7. 7

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of polymers of ethylene, non-cellular and not...HS 392010

    Comes fromUnited States 70%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 518m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 165m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 1.5bn
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 693m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); United States supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 693mdown 3% on 2022
  8. 8

    Ferrous waste and scrap: n.e.c. in heading no. 7204HS 720449

    Comes fromUnited States 100%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSteel, alloy: semi-finished products (exports USD 498m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 71m
    Countries that export it well67

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 660m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); United States supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 660mdown 34% on 2022
  9. 9

    Plastics: tube, pipe and hose fittings (e.g. joints, elbows, flanges)HS 391740

    Comes fromUnited States 76%, 60 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 518m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 155m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 295m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 641m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); United States supplies 76 per cent (2).

    USD 641mup 50% on 2022
  10. 10

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip, of polyurethanes, cellularHS 392113

    Comes fromUnited States 63%, 40 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 518m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 79m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 1.6bn
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 481m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); United States supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 481mdown 2% on 2022
  11. 11

    Aluminium: alloys, bars, rods and profiles, other than hollowHS 760429

    Comes fromUnited States 74%, 44 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: waste and scrap (exports USD 781m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 117m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 232m
    Countries that export it well31

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 461m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); United States supplies 74 per cent (2).

    USD 461mdown 8% on 2022
  12. 12

    Railway or tramway locomotives or rolling stock: parts, axles and wheels, and parts thereofHS 860719

    Comes fromUnited States 72%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRailway or tramway goods vans and wagons: covered and closed, not... (exports USD 2.1bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 74m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 490m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 449m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); United States supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 449mup 10% on 2022
  13. 13

    Tricycles, scooters, pedal cars and similar wheeled toys: dolls' carriages: dolls: other toys: reduced-size (scale)...HS 950300

    Comes fromChina 80%, 60 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGames: operated by coins, banknotes, bank cards, tokens or by other... (exports USD 181m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.6bn
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.9bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); China supplies 80 per cent (2).

    USD 1.9bnup 23% on 2022
  14. 14

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorriesHS 401120

    Comes fromUnited States 48%, 34 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including... (exports USD 2.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 269m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 597m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.8bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); United States supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 1.8bnup 1% on 2022
  15. 15

    Iron or steel: threaded screws and bolts n.e.c. in item no. 7318.1, whether or not with their nuts or washersHS 731815

    Comes fromUnited States 60%, 71 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308 (exports USD 1.6bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 158m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 1.6bn
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.6bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); United States supplies 60 per cent (2).

    USD 1.6bndown 0% on 2022
  16. 16

    Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodesHS 740311

    Comes fromUnited States 90%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: waste and scrap (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 259m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 106m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.5bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); United States supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 1.5bnup 170% on 2022
  17. 17

    Aluminium: articles n.e.c. in heading 7616HS 761699

    Comes fromUnited States 43%, 60 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: waste and scrap (exports USD 781m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 591m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 101m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); United States supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 1.1bnup 38% on 2022
  18. 18

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromUnited States 72%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSauces and preparations therefor: mixed condiments and mixed... (exports USD 670m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 587m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 112m
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 26 per cent (1); United States supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 1.1bnup 26% on 2022
  19. 19

    Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mmHS 740811

    Comes fromUnited States 94%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: waste and scrap (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 134m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 154m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); United States supplies 94 per cent (2).

    USD 1.1bnup 10% on 2022
  20. 20

    Catalysts, supported: reaction initiators, reaction accelerators and catalytic preparations, with precious metal or...HS 381512

    Comes fromUnited States 90%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFinishing agents and dye carriers: to accelerate dyeing or fixing of... (exports USD 151m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 55m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 175m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Mexico's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); United States supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 1.1bndown 32% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Mexico already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Machinery: parts and accessories (other than covers, carrying cases and the... imports USD 9.3bn, exports USD 5.6bn, top source China 37%
  • Engines: compression-ignition internal combustion piston engines (diesel or... imports USD 5.1bn, exports USD 1.9bn, top source United States 90%
  • Electrical apparatus: parts suitable for use solely or principally with the... imports USD 4.0bn, exports USD 1.8bn, top source United States 65%
  • Electrical apparatus: n.e.c. in heading no. 8536, for switching or protecting... imports USD 3.1bn, exports USD 1.3bn, top source United States 64%
  • Electrical static converters imports USD 4.3bn, exports USD 3.0bn, top source China 44%
  • Units of automatic data processing machines: storage units imports USD 4.7bn, exports USD 3.5bn, top source United States 39%
  • Vehicle parts: gear boxes and parts thereof imports USD 6.3bn, exports USD 5.2bn, top source United States 53%
  • Plastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the conveyance or... imports USD 1.5bn, exports USD 518m, top source United States 88%
  • Pumps and compressors: parts, of air or vacuum pumps, air or other gas... imports USD 1.4bn, exports USD 633m, top source China 47%
  • Plastics: tubes, pipes and hoses thereof, other than those of item no.... imports USD 724m, exports USD 174m, top source United States 86%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 2376 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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