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The twenty imports Lebanon is best placed to replace.

Lebanon imported USD 8.0bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 1.2bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 879mthe twenty, imported in 2024
47products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
626products Lebanon already exports well
163product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Lebanon already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Lebanon would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Lebanon does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves...HS 721420

    Comes fromEgypt 90%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFerrous waste and scrap: n.e.c. in heading no. 7204 (exports USD 106m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well45

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 53m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3); Egypt supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 53mdown 27% on 2022
  2. 2

    Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing...HS 170114

    Comes fromBrazil 100%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white... (exports USD 9m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3k
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 102m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); Brazil supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 102mup 27% on 2022
  3. 3

    Cement clinkers (whether or not coloured)HS 252310

    Comes fromEgypt 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthNatural calcium phosphates, natural aluminium calcium phosphates and... (exports USD 62m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well36

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 31m, top 23 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); Egypt supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 31mfrom USD 2m in 2022
  4. 4

    Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mmHS 740811

    Comes fromEgypt 57%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: waste and scrap (exports USD 101m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1k
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 60m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1); Egypt supplies 57 per cent (1).

    USD 60mdown 5% on 2022
  5. 5

    Ceramic tiles: flags and paving, hearth or wall tiles other than those of subheadings 6907.30 and 6907.40, of a water...HS 690721

    Comes fromSpain 52%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCeramic flooring blocks, supports or filler tiles and the like... (exports USD 99k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 63k
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 54m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); Spain supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 54mdown 13% on 2022
  6. 6

    Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or strippedHS 240120

    Comes fromUnited States 44%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 232k
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 36m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); United States supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 36mup 36% on 2022
  7. 7

    Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of...HS 230400

    Comes fromTurkey 84%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 33k
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 33m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); Turkey supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 33mup 66% on 2022
  8. 8

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390110

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 70%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics n.e.c. in heading no. 3915: waste, parings and scrap (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 241k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 15m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 33m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); Saudi Arabia supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 33mdown 4% on 2022
  9. 9

    Food preparations: pasta, uncooked (excluding that containing eggs), not stuffed or otherwise preparedHS 190219

    Comes fromTurkey 46%, 22 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFood preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether... (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 174k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 13m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 20m, top 44 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 20mup 13% on 2022
  10. 10

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromFrance 26%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPharmaceutical goods: waste pharmaceuticals (exports USD 14k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 47m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 214m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1).

    USD 214mup 9% on 2022
  11. 11

    Electric accumulators: lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston engines, including separators, whether or not...HS 850710

    Comes fromSouth Korea 56%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTransformers: n.e.c. in item no. 8504.2, having a power handling... (exports USD 32m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 134k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 68m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 30m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 56 per cent (1).

    USD 30mdown 28% on 2022
  12. 12

    Fish preparations: tunas, skipjack tuna and bonito (Sarda spp.), prepared or preserved, whole or in pieces (but not...HS 160414

    Comes fromThailand 87%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMeat preparations: of bovine animals, meat or meat offal, prepared... (exports USD 472k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 53k
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); Thailand supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 29mup 61% on 2022
  13. 13

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 78%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: with uppers of leather or composition leather, n.e.c. in... (exports USD 130k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 45k
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 28m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 28mdown 11% on 2022
  14. 14

    Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620342

    Comes fromTurkey 45%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDresses: women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or... (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 91k
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 11m, top 87 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 45 per cent (1).

    USD 11mdown 14% on 2022
  15. 15

    Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708HS 870899

    Comes fromChina 37%, 44 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTanker trailers and tanker semi-trailers (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 291k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 33m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 38m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1).

    USD 38mdown 50% on 2022
  16. 16

    Perfumes and toilet watersHS 330300

    Comes fromFrance 47%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for... (exports USD 6m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 26 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1); France supplies 47 per cent (1).

    USD 29mdown 22% on 2022
  17. 17

    Clothing: worn, and other worn articlesHS 630900

    Comes fromUnited States 48%, 36 source countries
    Nearest export strengthToilet and kitchen linen: of cotton, excluding terry towelling or... (exports USD 95k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 343k
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 32 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1); United States supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 25mup 9% on 2022
  18. 18

    Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feedingHS 230990

    Comes fromBelgium 30%, 36 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the...
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 22m
    Countries that export it well48

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 20m, top 45 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2).

    USD 20mup 23% on 2022
  19. 19

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromNetherlands 21%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: phosphatic, superphosphates... (exports USD 61m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 18m, top 48 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2).

    USD 18mup 43% on 2022
  20. 20

    Plastics: builders' ware, n.e.c. or included in heading no. 3925HS 392590

    Comes fromChina 84%, 27 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics n.e.c. in heading no. 3915: waste, parings and scrap (exports USD 7m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 166k
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 15m, top 65 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Lebanon's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); China supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 15mup 18% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Lebanon already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added... imports USD 233m, exports USD 2m, top source Morocco 44%
  • Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10 imports USD 77m, exports USD 10m, top source Italy 17%
  • Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station... imports USD 52m, exports USD 6m, top source China 41%
  • Food preparations: sweet biscuits, whether or not containing cocoa imports USD 37m, exports USD 2m, top source Turkey 40%
  • Particle board of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other... imports USD 30m, exports USD 648k, top source Turkey 64%
  • Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of... imports USD 34m, exports USD 6m, top source France 43%
  • Glass: carboys, bottles, flasks, jars, pots, phials and other containers of... imports USD 32m, exports USD 5m, top source Egypt 37%
  • Electric generating sets: with compression-ignition internal combustion piston... imports USD 30m, exports USD 7m, top source United Kingdom 49%
  • Marble, travertine and alabaster: simply cut or sawn, with a flat or even... imports USD 23m, exports USD 1m, top source Egypt 94%
  • Food preparations: waffles and wafers, whether or not containing cocoa imports USD 21m, exports USD 799k, top source Turkey 46%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 163 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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