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The twenty imports Kenya is best placed to replace.

Kenya imported USD 16bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 3.6bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 1.8bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
101products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
677products Kenya already exports well
334product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Kenya already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Kenya would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Kenya does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromChina 82%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthContainers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel (exports USD 15m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 69m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 82 per cent (2).

    USD 69mdown 14% on 2022
  2. 2

    Clothing: worn, and other worn articlesHS 630900

    Comes fromChina 51%, 123 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSacks and bags: of a kind used for the packing of goods, of man-made... (exports USD 10m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 915k
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 212m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); China supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 212mup 17% on 2022
  3. 3

    Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matterHS 170199

    Comes fromIndia 25%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugar confectionery: chewing gum, whether or not sugar-coated, not... (exports USD 40m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 38m
    Countries that export it well44

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 193m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3).

    USD 193mdown 12% on 2022
  4. 4

    Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higherHS 390761

    Comes fromChina 97%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the... (exports USD 20m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 514k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 36m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 131m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 131mup 79% on 2022
  5. 5

    Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 15,000kgHS 880240

    Comes fromUnited States 73%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight... (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 147m
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 120m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); United States supplies 73 per cent (2).

    USD 120mup 39% on 2022
  6. 6

    Odoriferous substances and mixtures: of a kind used in the food or drink industriesHS 330210

    Comes fromEswatini 74%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for... (exports USD 24m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 22m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 112m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 34 per cent (1); Eswatini supplies 74 per cent (2).

    USD 112mup 41% on 2022
  7. 7

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the two fertilizing elements nitrogen and phosphorus, other than nitrates...HS 310559

    Comes fromMorocco 100%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 154k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 27m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 101m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); Morocco supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 101mup 211% on 2022
  8. 8

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 93%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: with outer soles and uppers of rubber or plastics, upper... (exports USD 11m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 67m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); China supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 67mdown 74% on 2022
  9. 9

    Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not fitted with connectorsHS 854449

    Comes fromChina 74%, 62 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectric accumulators: lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston... (exports USD 19m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 23m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 49m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); China supplies 74 per cent (2).

    USD 49mdown 6% on 2022
  10. 10

    Dresses: women's or girls', of textile materials n.e.c. in item no. 6204.4 (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620449

    Comes fromChina 85%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or... (exports USD 82m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 474k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 22m, top 42 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); China supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 22mup 13% on 2022
  11. 11

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromChina 45%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the... (exports USD 20m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 52m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 171m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1); China supplies 45 per cent (1).

    USD 171mup 60% on 2022
  12. 12

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or moreHS 390120

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 44%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: carboys, bottles, flasks and similar articles, for the... (exports USD 20m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 147m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 111m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); Saudi Arabia supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 111mdown 2% on 2022
  13. 13

    Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics, other than those of headings 60.01 to 60.04, of synthetic fibres, dyedHS 600632

    Comes fromChina 53%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 184k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 39m
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 76m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); China supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 76mup 31% on 2022
  14. 14

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromChina 60%, 80 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectric accumulators: lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston... (exports USD 19m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 690k
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 62m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 60 per cent (2).

    USD 62mdown 6% on 2022
  15. 15

    Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional dimension exceeds 6mmHS 740811

    Comes fromUnited Arab Emirates 93%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: waste and scrap (exports USD 95m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 23k
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 57m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); United Arab Emirates supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 57mup 12% on 2022
  16. 16

    Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel: containing by weight less than 0.25% of...HS 720711

    Comes fromChina 69%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted... (exports USD 81m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 22m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 56m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 56mdown 75% on 2022
  17. 17

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromQatar 50%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 54m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 55m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Qatar supplies 50 per cent (1).

    USD 55mdown 7% on 2022
  18. 18

    Iron or steel: articles n.e.c. in heading 7326HS 732690

    Comes fromChina 87%, 86 source countries
    Nearest export strengthContainers for compressed or liquefied gas, of iron or steel (exports USD 15m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 50m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 50mup 84% on 2022
  19. 19

    Tissue, towel, napkin stock or similar: for household or sanitary use, cellulose, wadding webs of cellulose fibres, in...HS 480300

    Comes fromEgypt 56%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPaper and paperboard: coated, impregnated or covered with plastics... (exports USD 9m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 537k
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 47m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); Egypt supplies 56 per cent (1).

    USD 47mdown 8% on 2022
  20. 20

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of...HS 721391

    Comes fromChina 71%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted... (exports USD 81m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2k
    Countries that export it well31

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 46m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kenya's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); China supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 46mdown 21% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Kenya already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 414m, exports USD 149m, top source India 59%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate... imports USD 104m, exports USD 6m, top source Saudi Arabia 61%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements... imports USD 92m, exports USD 8m, top source Russia 83%
  • Industrial monocarboxylic fatty acids: acid oils from refining: (other than... imports USD 58m, exports USD 7m, top source Malaysia 71%
  • Engines: for aircraft, spark-ignition reciprocating or rotary internal... imports USD 49m, exports USD 1m, top source United States 64%
  • Insecticides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Notes 1 & 2... imports USD 56m, exports USD 15m, top source China 36%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, double salts and mixtures of... imports USD 38m, exports USD 1m, top source Turkey 42%
  • Fungicides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Note 1 to this... imports USD 46m, exports USD 10m, top source China 32%
  • Motorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles: fitted with an auxiliary motor... imports USD 41m, exports USD 8m, top source China 48%
  • Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including... imports USD 43m, exports USD 12m, top source Japan 70%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 334 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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