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The twenty imports Kazakhstan is best placed to replace.

Kazakhstan imported USD 63bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 27bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 4.3bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
414products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
292products Kazakhstan already exports well
958product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Kazakhstan already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Kazakhstan would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Kazakhstan does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Copper: unrefined, copper anodes for electrolytic refiningHS 740200

    Comes fromRussia 100%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes (exports USD 3.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 31m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 385m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3); Russia supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 385mfrom USD 4k in 2022
  2. 2

    Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matterHS 170199

    Comes fromRussia 93%, 27 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 55m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well44

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 282m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3); Russia supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 282mup 65% on 2022
  3. 3

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of 0.94 or moreHS 390120

    Comes fromRussia 66%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPropylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms (exports USD 231m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 49m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 195m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Russia supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 195mdown 10% on 2022
  4. 4

    Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: n.e.c. in chapter 18HS 180690

    Comes fromRussia 71%, 54 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, width 600mm or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 44m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 187m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 175m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Russia supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 175mup 21% on 2022
  5. 5

    Particle board of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substancesHS 441011

    Comes fromRussia 79%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlywood: with sheets of wood only: not bamboo: each ply 6mm or less... (exports USD 42m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 19m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 20m
    Countries that export it well38

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 149m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Russia supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 149mup 16% on 2022
  6. 6

    Iron or steel: grinding balls and similar articles for mills, forged or stamped, but not further workedHS 732611

    Comes fromChina 78%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): line pipe of a kind used for... (exports USD 47m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 133k; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 225m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 129m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 129mdown 16% on 2022
  7. 7

    Iron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (not seamless), welded, of square or rectangular...HS 730661

    Comes fromRussia 98%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): line pipe of a kind used for... (exports USD 47m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 107m
    Countries that export it well40

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 118m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Russia supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 118mup 44% on 2022
  8. 8

    Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty...HS 190590

    Comes fromRussia 70%, 46 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFood preparations: pasta (excluding stuffed), cooked or otherwise... (exports USD 37m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 26m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 150m
    Countries that export it well47

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 186m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Russia supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 186mup 30% on 2022
  9. 9

    Washing and cleaning preparations: powders, flakes and granules, surface-active, whether or not containing soap...HS 340250

    Comes fromRussia 66%, 44 source countries
    Nearest export strengthLubricating preparations: (other than for the treatment of textile... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 16m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 71m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 186m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Russia supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 186mdown 4% on 2022
  10. 10

    Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including driver), with only compression-ignition...HS 870210

    Comes fromChina 78%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of... (exports USD 69m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 897k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 90m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 161m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 161mup 88% on 2022
  11. 11

    Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, casing and tubing, of a kind used in drilling for...HS 730429

    Comes fromRussia 51%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): line pipe of a kind used for... (exports USD 47m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 20m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 124m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 144m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Russia supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 144mup 37% on 2022
  12. 12

    Meat preparations: sausages and similar products, of meat, meat offal, blood or insects, and food preparations based...HS 160100

    Comes fromRussia 71%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFish preparations: caviar substitutes, prepared from fish eggs (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 139m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); Russia supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 139mup 14% on 2022
  13. 13

    Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoaHS 170490

    Comes fromRussia 55%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: (not in coils), flat-rolled, width 600mm or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 34m
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 132m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); Russia supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 132mup 21% on 2022
  14. 14

    Nuts and other seeds: whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening matter or spirit (excluding ground-nuts...HS 200819

    Comes fromRussia 71%, 32 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJuice: tomato, unfermented, not containing added spirit, whether or... (exports USD 584k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 43m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 113m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); Russia supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 113mup 36% on 2022
  15. 15

    Railway or tramway goods vans and wagons: covered and closed, not self-propelledHS 860691

    Comes fromRussia 96%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRailway or tramway locomotives or rolling stock: parts, axles and... (exports USD 107m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 203m
    Countries that export it well6

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 87m, top 14 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); Russia supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 87mup 223% on 2022
  16. 16

    Vegetable preparations: potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozenHS 200520

    Comes fromRussia 92%, 22 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJuice: tomato, unfermented, not containing added spirit, whether or... (exports USD 584k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 74m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Russia supplies 92 per cent (2).

    USD 74mup 6% on 2022
  17. 17

    Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500ccHS 870322

    Comes fromChina 87%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of... (exports USD 69m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 11 more lines in the heading, USD 3.4bn
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 681m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); China supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 681mup 169% on 2022
  18. 18

    Trousers, bib and brace overalls, breeches and shorts: men's or boys', of cotton (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620342

    Comes fromChina 78%, 73 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEnsembles: men's or boys', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 105m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 322m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 322mup 100% on 2022
  19. 19

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromRussia 48%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): line pipe of a kind used for... (exports USD 47m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 61m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 123m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 311m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); Russia supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 311mup 55% on 2022
  20. 20

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromRussia 42%, 69 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIce cream and other edible ice: whether or not containing cocoa (exports USD 32m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 70m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 13m
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 309m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Kazakhstan's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); Russia supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 309mup 53% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Kazakhstan already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding... imports USD 1.5bn, exports USD 887m, top source France 39%
  • Uranium: enriched in U235, plutonium, their compounds, alloys dispersions... imports USD 568m, exports USD 180m, top source Russia 84%
  • Toilet and kitchen linen: of textile materials (other than cotton or man-made... imports USD 251m, exports USD 4m, top source Russia 99%
  • Garments: of textile materials (other than cotton or man-made fibres), knitted... imports USD 220m, exports USD 12m, top source Russia 100%
  • Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, painted, varnished... imports USD 177m, exports USD 74m, top source China 67%
  • Washing machines: household or laundry-type, fully-automatic, (of a dry linen... imports USD 142m, exports USD 50m, top source China 82%
  • Iron or non-alloy steel: angles, shapes and sections, n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 86m, exports USD 5m, top source Russia 99%
  • Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel... imports USD 215m, exports USD 138m, top source Russia 100%
  • Vehicles: dumpers, designed for off-highway use, for transport of goods imports USD 132m, exports USD 69m, top source China 61%
  • Boilers: central heating boilers (excluding those of heading no. 8402) imports USD 85m, exports USD 23m, top source Russia 24%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 958 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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