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The twenty imports Japan is best placed to replace.

Japan imported USD 461bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 688bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 32bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
436products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
1381products Japan already exports well
2402product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Japan already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Japan would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Japan does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Machinery: parts and accessories (other than covers, carrying cases and the like) of the machines of heading no. 8471HS 847330

    Comes fromChina 63%, 67 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the... (exports USD 20bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.1bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 2.1bndown 3% on 2022
  2. 2

    Semiconductor media: solid-state non-volatile storage devices, whether or not recorded, excluding products of Chapter 37HS 852351

    Comes fromTaiwan 41%, 55 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 795m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 166m
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); Taiwan supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 1.1bnup 20% on 2022
  3. 3

    Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic...HS 854231

    Comes fromTaiwan 57%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7.5bn; 1 more line in the heading, USD 292m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 8.0bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Taiwan supplies 57 per cent (1).

    USD 8.0bndown 19% on 2022
  4. 4

    Electric accumulators: lithium-ion, including separators, whether or not rectangular (including square)HS 850760

    Comes fromChina 77%, 47 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3.7bn; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 406m
    Countries that export it well7

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 2.7bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 2.7bnup 17% on 2022
  5. 5

    Ethers: acyclic, and their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or nitrosated derivatives, other than diethyl etherHS 290919

    Comes fromUnited States 93%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCyclic hydrocarbons: p-xylene (exports USD 2.0bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 62m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 52m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.5bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); United States supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 1.5bndown 25% on 2022
  6. 6

    Aircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or unmanned aircraft n.e.c. in heading no. 8807HS 880730

    Comes fromUnited States 67%, 56 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBalloons and dirigibles: gliders, hang gliders and other non-powered... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2.4bn; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 426m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.5bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); United States supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 1.5bnup 55% on 2022
  7. 7

    Vehicle parts: road wheels and parts and accessories thereofHS 870870

    Comes fromChina 70%, 55 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion reciprocating... (exports USD 36bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 297m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 2.5bn
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); China supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 1.4bndown 5% on 2022
  8. 8

    Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of liquid crystals, with drivers or...HS 852491

    Comes fromChina 83%, 42 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 722m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 167m
    Countries that export it well6

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.3bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 26 per cent (1); China supplies 83 per cent (2).

    USD 1.3bnup 8% on 2022
  9. 9

    Air conditioning machines: with motor driven fan and elements for temperature control, parts thereofHS 841590

    Comes fromChina 69%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the... (exports USD 20bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 907m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 1.5bn
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 1.1bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); China supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 1.1bndown 16% on 2022
  10. 10

    Communication apparatus: parts, other than aerials and aerial reflectors of all kindsHS 851779

    Comes fromChina 45%, 56 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn; 8 more lines in the heading, USD 24bn
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 790m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 24 per cent (2); China supplies 45 per cent (1).

    USD 790mdown 37% on 2022
  11. 11

    Vacuum cleaners, with self-contained electric motor, of a power not exceeding 1,500 W and having a dust bag or other...HS 850811

    Comes fromChina 77%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 113m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 702m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); China supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 702mdown 7% on 2022
  12. 12

    Wrist-watches: (not electrically operated), automatic winding, whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility...HS 910121

    Comes fromSwitzerland 94%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility... (exports USD 688m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 38m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 295m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 621m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); Switzerland supplies 94 per cent (2).

    USD 621mup 51% on 2022
  13. 13

    Ovens: microwave, of a kind used for domestic purposesHS 851650

    Comes fromChina 73%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 10 more lines in the heading, USD 1.5bn
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 385m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1); China supplies 73 per cent (2).

    USD 385mdown 18% on 2022
  14. 14

    Dextrins and other modified starchesHS 350510

    Comes fromThailand 60%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAdhesives: prepared, based on polymers of heading 3901 to 3913 or on... (exports USD 374m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 36m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 380m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); Thailand supplies 60 per cent (2).

    USD 380mdown 9% on 2022
  15. 15

    Cell cultures, whether or not modified: cell therapy productsHS 300251

    Comes fromUnited States 95%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBlood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and... (exports USD 7.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 66k; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 3.4bn
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 215m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); United States supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 215mup 197% on 2022
  16. 16

    Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kNHS 841112

    Comes fromUnited States 46%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the... (exports USD 20bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 782m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 604m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 3.6bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 34 per cent (1); United States supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 3.6bnup 30% on 2022
  17. 17

    Reception and transmission apparatus: for use with the apparatus of heading no. 8524 to 8528, excluding aerials and...HS 852990

    Comes fromChina 51%, 61 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectronic integrated circuits: memories (exports USD 15bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.3bn; 1 more line in the heading, USD 400m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.6bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 1.6bndown 18% on 2022
  18. 18

    Lenses, contact: unmounted, of any material, excluding elements of glass not optically workedHS 900130

    Comes fromIreland 32%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRegulating or controlling instruments and apparatus: automatic... (exports USD 2.9bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 41m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 195m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2).

    USD 1.4bnup 1% on 2022
  19. 19

    Fans: n.e.c. in item no. 8414.51HS 841459

    Comes fromChina 55%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the... (exports USD 20bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 379m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 335m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 845m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); China supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 845mup 9% on 2022
  20. 20

    Artificial parts of the body: excluding artificial jointsHS 902139

    Comes fromUnited States 46%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRegulating or controlling instruments and apparatus: automatic... (exports USD 2.9bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 37m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 1.9bn
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 754m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Japan's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); United States supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 754mdown 1% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Japan already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological... imports USD 8.9bn, exports USD 7.2bn, top source United States 31%
  • Wrist-watches: whether or not incorporating a stop-watch facility, with... imports USD 1.3bn, exports USD 688m, top source Switzerland 97%
  • Medical, surgical instruments and appliances: catheters, cannulae and the like imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.3bn, top source United States 30%
  • Medical, surgical or dental instruments and appliances: n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 3.0bn, exports USD 2.4bn, top source United States 39%
  • Heterocyclic compounds: with oxygen hetero-atom(s) only, containing an unfused... imports USD 544m, exports USD 96m, top source Italy 49%
  • Nickel: unwrought, not alloyed imports USD 874m, exports USD 437m, top source Australia 56%
  • Games: video game consoles and machines, other than those of subheading 9504.30 imports USD 1.7bn, exports USD 1.3bn, top source China 88%
  • Radar apparatus imports USD 695m, exports USD 315m, top source Philippines 45%
  • Silicon: containing by weight not less than 99.99% of silicon imports USD 624m, exports USD 258m, top source United States 66%
  • Monitors other than cathode-ray tube: n.e.c. in subheading 8528.52, whether or... imports USD 672m, exports USD 407m, top source China 46%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 2402 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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