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The twenty imports Iran is best placed to replace.

Iran imported USD 17bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 6.4bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 3.1bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
139products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
524products Iran already exports well
318product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Iran already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Iran would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Iran does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Sugars: cane sugar, raw, in solid form, other than as specified in Subheading Note 2 to this chapter, not containing...HS 170114

    Comes fromBrazil 99%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white... (exports USD 12m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 14k
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 422m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Brazil supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 422mdown 5% on 2022
  2. 2

    Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of...HS 230400

    Comes fromBrazil 72%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding (exports USD 26m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.2bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); Brazil supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 1.2bnup 24% on 2022
  3. 3

    Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708HS 870899

    Comes fromChina 78%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), tubing, piping and...
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 575m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 150m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 150mdown 57% on 2022
  4. 4

    Seats: of a kind used for motor vehiclesHS 940120

    Comes fromChina 99%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBoilers: parts of central heating boilers (excluding those of...
    Exports of this lineUSD 12k
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 90m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 22 per cent (2); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 90mup 132% on 2022
  5. 5

    Insulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets of a kind used in vehicles, aircraft or shipsHS 854430

    Comes fromChina 99%, 13 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 19k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 33m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 78m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 78mup 67% on 2022
  6. 6

    Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 232.56 but not...HS 520523

    Comes fromUzbekistan 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton: waste other than garnetted stock and yarn (including thread)... (exports USD 655k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 69m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Uzbekistan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 69mup 72% on 2022
  7. 7

    Tobacco: other than homogenised or reconstituted or smokingHS 240399

    Comes fromGermany 93%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped (exports USD 9m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1k
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 43m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 7 per cent (3); Germany supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 43mup 34% on 2022
  8. 8

    Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and similar articles, of any materialHS 961900

    Comes fromTurkey 94%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white...
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 38m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 94 per cent (2).

    USD 38mdown 17% on 2022
  9. 9

    Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, dyedHS 540752

    Comes fromChina 97%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics, woven: from strip or the like, of synthetic textile materials (exports USD 9m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 21k; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 108m
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 193m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); China supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 193mup 95% on 2022
  10. 10

    Pumps: centrifugal, n.e.c. in heading no. 8413, for liquidsHS 841370

    Comes fromChina 73%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDistilling or rectifying plant: not used for domestic purposes (exports USD 53m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 679k; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 85m
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 88m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); China supplies 73 per cent (2).

    USD 88mdown 24% on 2022
  11. 11

    Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500ccHS 870322

    Comes fromChina 93%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 763k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 87m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); China supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 87mfrom USD 725k in 2022
  12. 12

    Machinery parts: not containing electrical connectors, insulators, coils, contacts or other electrical features...HS 848790

    Comes fromChina 88%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDistilling or rectifying plant: not used for domestic purposes (exports USD 53m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 212k
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 87m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); China supplies 88 per cent (2).

    USD 87mup 260% on 2022
  13. 13

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on buses or lorriesHS 401120

    Comes fromChina 100%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: synthetic, styrene-butadiene rubber (SBR) and carboxylated... (exports USD 11m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 10k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 24m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 82m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 82mdown 44% on 2022
  14. 14

    Cocoa: powder, not containing added sugar or other sweetening matterHS 180500

    Comes fromTurkey 67%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 7k
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 63m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 63mup 18% on 2022
  15. 15

    Paper and paperboard: coated, impregnated or covered with plastics (excluding adhesives), other than bleached and...HS 481159

    Comes fromTurkey 92%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPaper and paperboard: uncoated, straw fluting paper, rolls or sheets (exports USD 16k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 398k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 29m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 63m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 92 per cent (2).

    USD 63mdown 8% on 2022
  16. 16

    Cotton: not carded or combedHS 520100

    Comes fromTurkey 60%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton: waste other than garnetted stock and yarn (including thread)... (exports USD 655k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 380k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 27 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 0 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 60 per cent (2).

    USD 35mdown 87% on 2022
  17. 17

    Medium density fibreboard (MDF), of a thickness exceeding 9 mmHS 441114

    Comes fromTurkey 62%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthParticle board of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 26m, top 37 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 62 per cent (2).

    USD 26mdown 88% on 2022
  18. 18

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromGermany 29%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBlood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and... (exports USD 53m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 11m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 204m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 176m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2).

    USD 176mdown 15% on 2022
  19. 19

    Engines: parts, suitable for use solely or principally with spark-ignition internal combustion piston engines (for...HS 840991

    Comes fromChina 76%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDistilling or rectifying plant: not used for domestic purposes (exports USD 53m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 415k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 60m
    Countries that export it well19

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 65m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); China supplies 76 per cent (2).

    USD 65mdown 42% on 2022
  20. 20

    Medicaments: (not containing antibiotics, hormones, alkaloids or their derivatives), for therapeutic or prophylactic...HS 300390

    Comes fromFrance 51%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBlood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and... (exports USD 53m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 314k
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 58m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iran's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); France supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 58mup 11% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Iran already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Blood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and immunological... imports USD 142m, exports USD 53m, top source Germany 79%
  • Tobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped imports USD 97m, exports USD 9m, top source Turkey 81%
  • Carpets and other textile floor coverings: woven, (not tufted or flocked), of... imports USD 34m, exports USD 11m, top source Turkey 100%
  • Cranes: overhead travelling cranes on fixed support imports USD 20m, exports USD 773k, top source Spain 73%
  • Washing and cleaning preparations: powders, flakes and granules... imports USD 34m, exports USD 18m, top source Turkey 90%
  • Glassware: drinking glasses (not stemware), other than of lead crystal or... imports USD 19m, exports USD 3m, top source China 92%
  • Glues or adhesives: prepared, products suitable for use as glues or adhesives... imports USD 18m, exports USD 3m, top source Turkey 74%
  • Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products... imports USD 21m, exports USD 9m, top source Netherlands 38%
  • Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other... imports USD 19m, exports USD 9m, top source Turkey 68%
  • Tobacco, (not stemmed or stripped) imports USD 14m, exports USD 4m, top source Turkey 96%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 318 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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