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The twenty imports Iceland is best placed to replace.

Iceland imported USD 8.3bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 4.7bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 947mthe twenty, imported in 2024
51products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
290products Iceland already exports well
128product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Iceland already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Iceland would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Iceland does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feedingHS 230990

    Comes fromNorway 60%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFlours, meals and pellets: of fish or of crustaceans, molluscs or... (exports USD 238m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 15m
    Countries that export it well48

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 179m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); Norway supplies 60 per cent (2).

    USD 179mup 47% on 2022
  2. 2

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromDenmark 48%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBlood, human or animal, antisera, other blood fractions and... (exports USD 263m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 28m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 198m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Denmark supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 198mup 24% on 2022
  3. 3

    Biodiesel and mixtures thereof: not containing or containing less than 70% by weight of petroleum oils or oils...HS 382600

    Comes fromNetherlands 70%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGraphite or other carbon based preparations: in the form of pastes... (exports USD 6m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 41m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2); Netherlands supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 41mup 126% on 2022
  4. 4

    Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other sweetening matter or flavouredHS 220210

    Comes fromNetherlands 44%, 62 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaters: other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar... (exports USD 30m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well60

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 44m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); Netherlands supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 44mup 21% on 2022
  5. 5

    Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 2000kg but not exceeding 15,000kgHS 880230

    Comes fromChina 97%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight... (exports USD 73m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 28m, top 30 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); China supplies 97 per cent (2).

    USD 28ma year
  6. 6

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromUnited States 22%, 89 source countries
    Nearest export strengthYeasts: inactive, other single-cell micro-organisms, dead (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 45m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2).

    USD 45mup 23% on 2022
  7. 7

    Food preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether or not containing cocoa: communion wafers, empty...HS 190590

    Comes fromBelgium 15%, 69 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPaper or paperboard: waste and scrap, of unbleached kraft paper or...
    Exports of this lineUSD 93k
    Countries that export it well47

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 42m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2).

    USD 42mup 20% on 2022
  8. 8

    Buildings: prefabricated, of woodHS 940610

    Comes fromLithuania 37%, 22 source countries
    Nearest export strengthQuilts, bedspreads, eiderdowns and duvets (comforters) (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 30m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 40m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2).

    USD 40mup 11% on 2022
  9. 9

    Aluminium: structures (excluding prefabricated buildings of heading no. 9406) and parts of structures, n.e.c. in...HS 761090

    Comes fromLithuania 67%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed) (exports USD 1.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 310k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 13m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 30m, top 27 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); Lithuania supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 30mup 198% on 2022
  10. 10

    Wood: coniferous species, of pine (Pinus spp.), sawn or chipped lengthwise, sliced or peeled, whether or not planed...HS 440711

    Comes fromSweden 39%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: for fuel, sawdust and wood waste and scrap, not agglomerated... (exports USD 625k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 67k
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 21m, top 42 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3).

    USD 21mdown 30% on 2022
  11. 11

    Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing, prepared diagnostic or laboratory reagents whether or not on...HS 382219

    Comes fromUnited States 47%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGraphite or other carbon based preparations: in the form of pastes... (exports USD 6m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 165k
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 21m, top 45 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); United States supplies 47 per cent (1).

    USD 21mup 138% on 2022
  12. 12

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromPoland 32%, 43 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: alloys, bars, rods and profiles, other than hollow
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 67m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1).

    USD 67mdown 6% on 2022
  13. 13

    Furniture: wooden, other than for office, kitchen or bedroom useHS 940360

    Comes fromLithuania 29%, 55 source countries
    Nearest export strengthQuilts, bedspreads, eiderdowns and duvets (comforters) (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 92k; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 39m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 22 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1).

    USD 34mup 22% on 2022
  14. 14

    Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than...HS 853710

    Comes fromNorway 39%, 59 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCarbon: lamp carbons, battery carbons and other articles of graphite... (exports USD 24m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 19m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 31m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1).

    USD 31mup 171% on 2022
  15. 15

    Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially colouredHS 252329

    Comes fromDenmark 53%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthStones: of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules... (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well54

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 26m, top 33 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1); Denmark supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 26mdown 4% on 2022
  16. 16

    Quartzite: whether or not roughly trimmed or merely cut, by sawing or otherwise, into blocks or slabs of a rectangular...HS 250620

    Comes fromTurkey 54%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthStones: of heading no. 2515 or 2516 (excluding marble), in granules... (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 19m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 22m, top 39 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Turkey supplies 54 per cent (1).

    USD 22mdown 13% on 2022
  17. 17

    Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or lessHS 220421

    Comes fromItaly 27%, 46 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaters: other than mineral and aerated, (not containing added sugar... (exports USD 30m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 147k
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 22m, top 41 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2).

    USD 22mup 15% on 2022
  18. 18

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity...HS 870331

    Comes fromRomania 78%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTanks and other armoured fighting vehicles: motorised, whether or... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 28k; 8 more lines in the heading, USD 331m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 18m, top 55 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); Romania supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 18mdown 12% on 2022
  19. 19

    Aluminium: casks, drums, cans, boxes and the like for any material (not compressed or liquefied gas), 300l capacity or...HS 761290

    Comes fromSweden 59%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: unwrought, (not alloyed) (exports USD 1.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2k
    Countries that export it well42

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 18m, top 56 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2); Sweden supplies 59 per cent (1).

    USD 18mup 27% on 2022
  20. 20

    Wood: charcoal of wood other than bamboo, nut or shell, whether or not agglomeratedHS 440290

    Comes fromUkraine 70%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: for fuel, sawdust and wood waste and scrap, not agglomerated... (exports USD 625k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 18m, top 59 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Iceland's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); Ukraine supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 18mup 20% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Iceland already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Carbon electrodes: with or without metal, of a kind used for other than furnaces imports USD 183m, exports USD 19m, top source Norway 82%
  • Fishing vessels, factory ships and other vessels: for processing or preserving... imports USD 150m, exports USD 15m, top source Greenland 40%
  • Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding... imports USD 166m, exports USD 73m, top source Germany 51%
  • Products n.e.c. in heading 2404, intended for the intake of nicotine into the... imports USD 20m, exports USD 2m, top source Denmark 56%
  • Carbonaceous pastes: for electrodes and similar pastes for furnace linings imports USD 11m, exports USD 401k, top source Norway 85%
  • Salt (including table salt and denatured salt): pure sodium chloride whether... imports USD 11m, exports USD 3m, top source Norway 33%
  • Plastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the conveyance or... imports USD 13m, exports USD 7m, top source Denmark 26%
  • Communication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations): machines... imports USD 11m, exports USD 5m, top source China 32%
  • Surveying equipment: articles n.e.c. in heading no. 9015, including... imports USD 11m, exports USD 8m, top source United States 33%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 128 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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