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The twenty imports Guatemala is best placed to replace.

Guatemala imported USD 25bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 9.8bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 2.2bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
101products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
774products Guatemala already exports well
480product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Guatemala already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Guatemala would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Guatemala does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Cotton: not carded or combedHS 520100

    Comes fromUnited States 100%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or... (exports USD 66m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 982k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 118m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); United States supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 118mdown 8% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromRussia 77%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 24m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 74m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 99m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (2); Russia supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 99mdown 21% on 2022
  3. 3

    Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of...HS 230400

    Comes fromUnited States 93%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding (exports USD 90m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 69k
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 277m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); United States supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 277mdown 3% on 2022
  4. 4

    Clothing: worn, and other worn articlesHS 630900

    Comes fromUnited States 98%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSacks and bags: of a kind used for the packing of goods, of man-made... (exports USD 32m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 207m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); United States supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 207mup 1% on 2022
  5. 5

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromMexico 75%, 39 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 40m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 31m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 166m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Mexico supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 166mup 4% on 2022
  6. 6

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390110

    Comes fromUnited States 62%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 85m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 169m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 142m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); United States supplies 62 per cent (2).

    USD 142mdown 18% on 2022
  7. 7

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, n.e.c. in heading no. 7213, of...HS 721391

    Comes fromChina 66%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or... (exports USD 95m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 66k
    Countries that export it well31

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 119m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 119mdown 10% on 2022
  8. 8

    Iron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy steel, containing by weight less than 0.25% of...HS 720719

    Comes fromIndonesia 61%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or... (exports USD 95m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 146m
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 101m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); Indonesia supplies 61 per cent (2).

    USD 101mup 58% on 2022
  9. 9

    Stoppers: caps and lids, of base metalHS 830990

    Comes fromMexico 85%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrodes: coated, of base metal, for electric arc-welding (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 79m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Mexico supplies 85 per cent (2).

    USD 79mdown 2% on 2022
  10. 10

    Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not fitted with connectorsHS 854449

    Comes fromMexico 47%, 57 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 40m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 48m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 171m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1); Mexico supplies 47 per cent (1).

    USD 171mup 29% on 2022
  11. 11

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 72%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: parts, uppers and parts thereof, other than stiffeners (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 16m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 64m, top 14 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); China supplies 72 per cent (2).

    USD 64mup 19% on 2022
  12. 12

    Electric accumulators: lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston engines, including separators, whether or not...HS 850710

    Comes fromMexico 69%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthInsulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring... (exports USD 40m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 260k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 19m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 64m, top 14 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Mexico supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 64mup 24% on 2022
  13. 13

    Vehicles: public transport type (carries 10 or more persons, including driver), with only compression-ignition...HS 870210

    Comes fromJapan 63%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrailers and semi-trailers: self-loading or self-unloading, for... (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 665k
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 63m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 34 per cent (1); Japan supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 63mup 74% on 2022
  14. 14

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromMexico 66%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTobacco: partly or wholly stemmed or stripped (exports USD 57m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 28m, top 35 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2); Mexico supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 28mup 1% on 2022
  15. 15

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromChina 32%, 29 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive)... (exports USD 85m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 114m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1).

    USD 114mdown 33% on 2022
  16. 16

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromChina 39%, 47 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow... (exports USD 80m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 26m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 96m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 26 per cent (1).

    USD 96mup 24% on 2022
  17. 17

    Cosmetic and toilet preparations: n.e.c. in heading no. 3304, for the care of the skin (excluding medicaments...HS 330499

    Comes fromMexico 29%, 62 source countries
    Nearest export strengthOdoriferous substances and mixtures: of a kind used in the food or... (exports USD 58m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 29m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 81m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1).

    USD 81mup 45% on 2022
  18. 18

    Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708HS 870899

    Comes fromUnited States 44%, 86 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTrailers and semi-trailers: self-loading or self-unloading, for... (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 149m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 70m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); United States supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 70mup 22% on 2022
  19. 19

    Sports footwear: tennis shoes, basketball shoes, gym shoes, training shoes and the like, with outer soles of rubber or...HS 640411

    Comes fromChina 50%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: parts, uppers and parts thereof, other than stiffeners (exports USD 22m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 411k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 20m
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 59m, top 15 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 50 per cent (1).

    USD 59mup 33% on 2022
  20. 20

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)HS 401110

    Comes fromChina 48%, 41 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: technically specified natural rubber (TSNR), in primary... (exports USD 95m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 129m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 59m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Guatemala's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); China supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 59mdown 0% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Guatemala already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10 imports USD 543m, exports USD 45m, top source Costa Rica 39%
  • Telephone sets n.e.c. in item no. 8517.1 imports USD 395m, exports USD 10m, top source Vietnam 62%
  • Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 643m, exports USD 331m, top source India 14%
  • Kraft paper and paperboard: kraftliner, uncoated, unbleached, in rolls or... imports USD 187m, exports USD 4m, top source United States 91%
  • Sanitary towels (pads) and tampons, napkins (diapers), napkin liners and... imports USD 118m, exports USD 15m, top source Mexico 50%
  • Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, less than 85% by... imports USD 72m, exports USD 3m, top source Costa Rica 58%
  • Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, 85% or more by... imports USD 65m, exports USD 2m, top source Costa Rica 20%
  • Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially coloured imports USD 71m, exports USD 12m, top source Vietnam 45%
  • Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g... imports USD 70m, exports USD 12m, top source China 78%
  • Perfumes and toilet waters imports USD 80m, exports USD 27m, top source Mexico 44%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 480 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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