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The twenty imports Ethiopia is best placed to replace.

Ethiopia imported USD 6.8bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 627m. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 1.4bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
48products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
253products Ethiopia already exports well
105product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Ethiopia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Ethiopia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Ethiopia does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or hot-extruded, containing indentations, ribs, grooves...HS 721420

    Comes fromTurkey 84%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well45

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 94m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3); Turkey supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 94mup 12% on 2022
  2. 2

    Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, not fitted with connectorsHS 854449

    Comes fromChina 98%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaste and scrap of lead-acid accumulators: spent lead-acid... (exports USD 905k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 9k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 34m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 120m, top 6 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2); China supplies 98 per cent (2).

    USD 120mup 242% on 2022
  3. 3

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)HS 310530

    Comes fromChina 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 23 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 35ma year
  4. 4

    Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding 15,000kgHS 880240

    Comes fromFrance 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthAircraft and spacecraft: parts of aeroplanes, helicopters or... (exports USD 62m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 586m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); France supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 586mup 178% on 2022
  5. 5

    Medicaments: containing antibiotics (other than penicillins, streptomycins or their derivatives), for therapeutic or...HS 300420

    Comes fromIndia 42%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVaccines, toxins, cultures of micro-organisms (excluding yeasts) and... (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 134k; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 180m
    Countries that export it well36

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 48m, top 14 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); India supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 48mup 33% on 2022
  6. 6

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromChina 78%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBuildings: prefabricated, of wood
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 16m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 48m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 48mdown 15% on 2022
  7. 7

    Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g or higherHS 390761

    Comes fromChina 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthPolyesters: n.e.c. in heading no. 3907, unsaturated, in primary forms (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 501k
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 35mup 6% on 2022
  8. 8

    Plastics: sacks and bags (including cones), for the conveyance or packing of goods, of plastics other than ethylene...HS 392329

    Comes fromIndia 86%, 16 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPolyesters: n.e.c. in heading no. 3907, unsaturated, in primary forms (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 21m, top 46 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); India supplies 86 per cent (2).

    USD 21mdown 40% on 2022
  9. 9

    Odoriferous substances and mixtures: of a kind used in the food or drink industriesHS 330210

    Comes fromEgypt 55%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthOils, essential: n.e.c. in heading no. 3301 (terpeneless or not)... (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5k
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 72m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1); Egypt supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 72mup 46% on 2022
  10. 10

    Herbicides, anti-sprouting products and plant-growth regulators: other than containing goods of Subheading Note 1 to...HS 380893

    Comes fromChina 62%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthReagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing, prepared... (exports USD 226k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 51m
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 61m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 62 per cent (2).

    USD 61mup 44% on 2022
  11. 11

    Electrical transformers: liquid dielectric, having a power handling capacity exceeding 10,000kVAHS 850423

    Comes fromSouth Korea 61%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaste and scrap of lead-acid accumulators: spent lead-acid... (exports USD 905k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 66m
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 54m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 61 per cent (2).

    USD 54mfrom USD 4m in 2022
  12. 12

    Boards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric control or the distribution of electricity, (other than...HS 853710

    Comes fromChina 66%, 37 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaste and scrap of lead-acid accumulators: spent lead-acid... (exports USD 905k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 34m
    Countries that export it well29

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 48m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); China supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 48mdown 2% on 2022
  13. 13

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromChina 24%, 30 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFood preparations: bakers' wares n.e.c. in heading no. 1605, whether...
    Exports of this lineUSD 91k
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 38m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3).

    USD 38mdown 51% on 2022
  14. 14

    Turbines: parts of hydraulic turbines and water wheels, including regulatorsHS 841090

    Comes fromChina 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthTurbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN (exports USD 49m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well20

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 36m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 36mup 195% on 2022
  15. 15

    Meters: electricity supply or production meters, including calibrating meters thereofHS 902830

    Comes fromChina 100%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 22 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 35mfrom USD 4m in 2022
  16. 16

    Yarn, synthetic: filament, monofilament (less than 67 decitex), textured, of polyesters, not for retail sale, not...HS 540233

    Comes fromChina 99%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured... (exports USD 251k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2k
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 34mdown 65% on 2022
  17. 17

    Reception apparatus for television, whether or not incorporating radio-broadcast receivers or sound or video recording...HS 852872

    Comes fromChina 92%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWaste and scrap of lead-acid accumulators: spent lead-acid... (exports USD 905k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8k
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 26m, top 38 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); China supplies 92 per cent (2).

    USD 26mdown 37% on 2022
  18. 18

    Printed matter: books, brochures, leaflets and similar printed matter n.e.c. in item no. 4901.10 or 4901.91HS 490199

    Comes fromChina 82%, 34 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCoffee: roasted, not decaffeinated
    Exports of this lineUSD 231k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 41 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2); China supplies 82 per cent (2).

    USD 25mup 158% on 2022
  19. 19

    Paper and paperboard: exercise booksHS 482020

    Comes fromIndonesia 70%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 17m, top 56 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 4 per cent (3); Indonesia supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 17mdown 38% on 2022
  20. 20

    Footwear: parts, uppers and parts thereof, other than stiffenersHS 640610

    Comes fromChina 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: with uppers of leather or composition leather, n.e.c. in... (exports USD 418k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 229k
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 12m, top 79 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Ethiopia's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 12mdown 48% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Ethiopia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Turbo-jets: of a thrust exceeding 25kN imports USD 482m, exports USD 49m, top source United Kingdom 51%
  • Reagents: diagnostic or laboratory reagents on a backing, prepared diagnostic... imports USD 11m, exports USD 226k, top source South Korea 80%
  • Fabrics: knitted or crocheted fabrics of a width exceeding 30 cm, other than... imports USD 17m, exports USD 12m, top source China 41%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 105 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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