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The twenty imports Estonia is best placed to replace.

Estonia imported USD 20bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 17bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 1.1bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
36products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
1154products Estonia already exports well
411product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Estonia already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Estonia would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Estonia does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromGermany 22%, 64 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWadding, gauze, bandages and similar articles: (excluding adhesive... (exports USD 16m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 79m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 61m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 505m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1).

    USD 505mup 23% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromFinland 40%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 3m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1); Finland supplies 40 per cent (1).

    USD 35mdown 67% on 2022
  3. 3

    Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially colouredHS 252329

    Comes fromLatvia 100%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSalt (including table salt and denatured salt): pure sodium chloride... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 12m
    Countries that export it well54

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 37 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 25mup 14% on 2022
  4. 4

    Non-alcoholic beverages: other than non-alcoholic beer, n.e.c. in item no. 2202.10, not including fruit, nut or...HS 220299

    Comes fromLithuania 31%, 51 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBeer: made from malt (exports USD 31m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 35m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 65m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1).

    USD 65mup 57% on 2022
  5. 5

    Chocolate and other food preparations containing cocoa: n.e.c. in chapter 18HS 180690

    Comes fromLatvia 22%, 64 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCocoa: butter, fat and oil (exports USD 171m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 35m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 42m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 27 per cent (1).

    USD 42mup 24% on 2022
  6. 6

    Cigarettes: containing tobaccoHS 240220

    Comes fromPoland 30%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthProducts n.e.c. in heading 2404, intended for the intake of nicotine... (exports USD 27m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well41

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 39m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1).

    USD 39mdown 5% on 2022
  7. 7

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of polymers of ethylene, non-cellular and not...HS 392010

    Comes fromFinland 19%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: boxes, cases, crates and similar articles for the... (exports USD 33m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 10m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 11m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 38m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1).

    USD 38mdown 14% on 2022
  8. 8

    Dog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feedingHS 230990

    Comes fromGermany 21%, 40 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDog or cat food: put up for retail sale, used in animal feeding (exports USD 25m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m
    Countries that export it well48

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 35m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1).

    USD 35mdown 5% on 2022
  9. 9

    Slag wool, rock wool and similar mineral wools (including intermixtures thereof), in bulk, sheets or rollsHS 680610

    Comes fromPoland 52%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCement, concrete or artificial stone: prefabricated structural... (exports USD 33m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 25m, top 36 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); Poland supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 25mdown 12% on 2022
  10. 10

    Vegetable preparations: potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, not frozenHS 200520

    Comes fromPoland 44%, 43 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJams, fruit jellies, marmalades, purees and pastes: of fruit or nuts... (exports USD 3m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 20m, top 48 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); Poland supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 20mup 20% on 2022
  11. 11

    Glass fibres: glass wool and articles thereofHS 701980

    Comes fromFinland 67%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthGlass: safety glass, laminated, of size and shape suitable for... (exports USD 49m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 335k
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 16m, top 63 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); Finland supplies 67 per cent (2).

    USD 16mdown 10% on 2022
  12. 12

    Waste and scrap of lead-acid accumulators: spent lead-acid accumulatorsHS 854911

    Comes fromFinland 68%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCommunication apparatus (excluding telephone sets or base stations)... (exports USD 703m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 39k
    Countries that export it well63

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 14m, top 71 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Finland supplies 68 per cent (2).

    USD 14mup 28% on 2022
  13. 13

    Plaster, or plaster compositions: boards, sheets, panels, tiles and similar articles, faced or reinforced with paper...HS 680911

    Comes fromLatvia 70%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCement, concrete or artificial stone: prefabricated structural... (exports USD 33m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 431k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 13m, top 73 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 13mdown 25% on 2022
  14. 14

    Oriented strand board (OSB) of wood, whether or not agglomerated with resins or other organic binding substancesHS 441012

    Comes fromLatvia 75%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthWood: for fuel, sawdust and wood waste and scrap, agglomerated in... (exports USD 226m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 11m, top 91 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); Latvia supplies 75 per cent (2).

    USD 11mdown 39% on 2022
  15. 15

    Sugar confectionery: (excluding chewing gum, including white chocolate), not containing cocoaHS 170490

    Comes fromGermany 17%, 59 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugars: molasses, from sugar beet, resulting from the extraction or... (exports USD 1m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 8m
    Countries that export it well37

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 26 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1).

    USD 34mup 16% on 2022
  16. 16

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: ammonium nitrate with calcium carbonate or other inorganic non-fertilizing...HS 310240

    Comes fromFinland 23%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: n.e.c. in heading no. 3105 (exports USD 3m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 27m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 32m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1).

    USD 32mdown 17% on 2022
  17. 17

    Aluminium: articles n.e.c. in heading 7616HS 761699

    Comes fromFinland 21%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: waste and scrap (exports USD 28m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 12m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 31m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1).

    USD 31mdown 6% on 2022
  18. 18

    Ammunition: cartridges and parts thereof n.e.c. in heading no. 9306HS 930630

    Comes fromGreece 29%, 25 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFirearms: (e.g. spring, air or gas guns and pistols, truncheons)... (exports USD 2m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 100k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 75m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 30m, top 29 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1).

    USD 30mup 397% on 2022
  19. 19

    Paper articles: handkerchiefs, cleansing or facial tissues and towelsHS 481820

    Comes fromFinland 26%, 35 source countries
    Nearest export strengthKraft paper and paperboard: sack kraft paper, uncoated, unbleached... (exports USD 36m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 902k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 18m
    Countries that export it well34

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 22m, top 43 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 42 per cent (1).

    USD 22mup 10% on 2022
  20. 20

    Air conditioning machines: containing a motor driven fan, other than window or wall types, not incorporating a...HS 841583

    Comes fromLithuania 36%, 27 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMachinery: for agricultural, horticultural or forestry use and... (exports USD 86m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 61m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 2 of 8: import bill USD 22m, top 45 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Estonia's export strengths in the top 35 per cent (1).

    USD 22mup 6% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Estonia already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Vehicles: with both spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine and... imports USD 533m, exports USD 143m, top source Sweden 30%
  • Telephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks imports USD 503m, exports USD 287m, top source China 39%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 280m, exports USD 130m, top source Czech Republic 31%
  • Cocoa: butter, fat and oil imports USD 280m, exports USD 171m, top source Indonesia 46%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 150m, exports USD 55m, top source Germany 49%
  • Chromium oxides and hydroxides: excluding chromium trioxide imports USD 94m, exports USD 1m, top source Kazakhstan 100%
  • Cocoa beans: whole or broken, raw or roasted imports USD 191m, exports USD 106m, top source Ivory Coast 32%
  • Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine... imports USD 107m, exports USD 36m, top source Germany 32%
  • Printing machinery: parts and accessories, n.e.c. in item no. 8443.91 imports USD 117m, exports USD 63m, top source Japan 50%
  • Iron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow profiles (not... imports USD 64m, exports USD 12m, top source Turkey 54%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 411 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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