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The twenty imports China is best placed to replace.

China imported USD 1144bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 3465bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 102bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
84products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
2675products China already exports well
2598product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing China already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in China would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and China does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive screens: of organic light-emitting diodes...HS 852412

    Comes fromSouth Korea 90%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTelephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks (exports USD 178bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.4bn
    Countries that export it well2

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.3bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (2); South Korea supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 2.3bndown 13% on 2022
  2. 2

    Rubber: mixtures of natural and synthetic rubbers of heading no. 4001 and 4002, in primary forms or in plates, sheets...HS 400280

    Comes fromThailand 43%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including... (exports USD 9.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 13m; 12 more lines in the heading, USD 3.2bn
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 5.3bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); Thailand supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 5.3bndown 3% on 2022
  3. 3

    Nickel: oxide sinters and other intermediate products of nickel metallurgyHS 750120

    Comes fromIndonesia 77%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthNickel: plates, sheets, strip and foil, not alloyed (exports USD 41m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 10m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 2.3bn
    Countries that export it well7

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 5.0bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); Indonesia supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 5.0bnup 14% on 2022
  4. 4

    Cyclic hydrocarbons: p-xyleneHS 290243

    Comes fromSouth Korea 42%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthNucleic acids and their salts, other heterocyclic compounds, n.e.c.... (exports USD 4.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 161k; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 5.3bn
    Countries that export it well12

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 8.8bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 8.8bndown 22% on 2022
  5. 5

    Semiconductor media: solid-state non-volatile storage devices, whether or not recorded, excluding products of Chapter 37HS 852351

    Comes fromTaiwan 46%, 76 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTelephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks (exports USD 178bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6.6bn; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 1.9bn
    Countries that export it well9

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 5.6bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1); Taiwan supplies 46 per cent (1).

    USD 5.6bndown 2% on 2022
  6. 6

    Optical elements: polarising material, sheets and plates thereofHS 900120

    Comes fromSouth Korea 43%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMechano-therapy appliances: massage apparatus and psychological... (exports USD 4.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 359m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 474m
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 2.9bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); South Korea supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 2.9bndown 22% on 2022
  7. 7

    Machines and apparatus of a kind used solely or principally for the manufacture of flat panel displaysHS 848630

    Comes fromJapan 55%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAutomatic data processing machines: portable, weighing not more than... (exports USD 126bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 146m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 43bn
    Countries that export it well3

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 2.3bn, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 37 per cent (1); Japan supplies 55 per cent (1).

    USD 2.3bndown 32% on 2022
  8. 8

    Cases and containers: handbags (whether or not with shoulder strap and including those without handle), with outer...HS 420221

    Comes fromFrance 53%, 89 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCases and containers: n.e.c. in heading 4202, with outer surface of... (exports USD 11bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 216m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.8bn, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); France supplies 53 per cent (1).

    USD 1.8bnup 4% on 2022
  9. 9

    Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of uncombed fibres, 85% or more by weight of cotton, less than 714.29 but...HS 520512

    Comes fromVietnam 48%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics, woven: containing less than 85% by weight of cotton, mixed... (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 37m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 1.7bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); Vietnam supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 1.4bndown 15% on 2022
  10. 10

    Copper: foil, not backed, of a thickness not exceeding 0.15mm, of refined copperHS 741011

    Comes fromTaiwan 51%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: tubes and pipes, of refined copper (exports USD 2.0bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 484m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 242m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 1.4bn, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); Taiwan supplies 51 per cent (1).

    USD 1.4bndown 15% on 2022
  11. 11

    Rubber: natural (excluding latex, technically specified natural rubber and smoked sheets), in primary forms or in...HS 400129

    Comes fromLaos 63%, 35 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including... (exports USD 9.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 7m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 3.3bn
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 625m, top 10 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 43 per cent (1); Laos supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 625mup 262% on 2022
  12. 12

    Meters: speed indicators and tachometers: stroboscopesHS 902920

    Comes fromGermany 88%, 65 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMechano-therapy appliances: massage apparatus and psychological... (exports USD 4.7bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 933m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 548m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); Germany supplies 88 per cent (2).

    USD 548mdown 31% on 2022
  13. 13

    Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of cellulose acetate, non-cellular and not...HS 392073

    Comes fromJapan 69%, 19 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: other articles n.e.c. in chapter 39 (exports USD 23bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 73m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 2.4bn
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 530m, top 12 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 39 per cent (1); Japan supplies 69 per cent (2).

    USD 530mup 22% on 2022
  14. 14

    Textile machinery: spinning machinesHS 844520

    Comes fromJapan 88%, 14 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAutomatic data processing machines: portable, weighing not more than... (exports USD 126bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 129m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 243m
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 333m, top 17 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 49 per cent (1); Japan supplies 88 per cent (2).

    USD 333mup 9% on 2022
  15. 15

    Rubber: vulcanised, thread and cordHS 400700

    Comes fromThailand 79%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including... (exports USD 9.8bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 65m
    Countries that export it well4

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 261m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); Thailand supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 261mdown 18% on 2022
  16. 16

    Derivatives of hydrocarbons n.e.c. in heading no. 2904, whether or not halogenatedHS 290499

    Comes fromKuwait 84%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthNucleic acids and their salts, other heterocyclic compounds, n.e.c.... (exports USD 4.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 146m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 37m
    Countries that export it well2

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 110m, top 37 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 23 per cent (2); Kuwait supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 110mdown 56% on 2022
  17. 17

    Cotton yarn: (not sewing thread), single, of combed fibres, less than 85% by weight of cotton, less than 192.31 but...HS 520624

    Comes fromVietnam 83%, 12 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics, woven: containing less than 85% by weight of cotton, mixed... (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 11m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 232m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 64m, top 49 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); Vietnam supplies 83 per cent (2).

    USD 64mup 58% on 2022
  18. 18

    Electronic integrated circuits: processors and controllers, whether or not combined with memories, converters, logic...HS 854231

    Comes fromSouth Korea 25%, 90 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTelephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks (exports USD 178bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 57bn
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 61bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1).

    USD 61bndown 60% on 2022
  19. 19

    Electrical apparatus: photosensitive semiconductor devices, diodes other than light emitting diodes and photovoltaic...HS 854149

    Comes fromSouth Korea 21%, 58 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTelephone sets: smartphones for cellular or other wireless networks (exports USD 178bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.1bn; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 794m
    Countries that export it well14

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 816m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1).

    USD 816mdown 31% on 2022
  20. 20

    Machines: parts and accessories of machines of heading no. 8447 or auxiliary machinery, sinkers, needles and other...HS 844851

    Comes fromSingapore 52%, 26 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAutomatic data processing machines: portable, weighing not more than... (exports USD 126bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 67m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 183m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 273m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to China's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1); Singapore supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 273mdown 9% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products China already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive... imports USD 30bn, exports USD 11bn, top source Vietnam 75%
  • Electronic integrated circuits: n.e.c. in heading no. 8542 imports USD 58bn, exports USD 49bn, top source Taiwan 69%
  • Flat panel display modules, whether or not incorporating touch-sensitive... imports USD 6.8bn, exports USD 5.4bn, top source Taiwan 61%
  • Compounds, inorganic or organic (excluding cerium), of rare-earth metals, of... imports USD 1.4bn, exports USD 381m, top source Myanmar 60%
  • Glass: drawn and blown, in sheets, (other than glass coloured throughout the... imports USD 1.1bn, exports USD 340m, top source Hong Kong 61%
  • Plastics: plates, sheets, film, foil and strip (not self-adhesive), of... imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.2bn, top source Japan 60%
  • Electrical capacitors: fixed, ceramic dielectric, multilayer imports USD 4.5bn, exports USD 3.8bn, top source Japan 45%
  • Human hair, dressed, thinned, bleached or otherwise worked: wool or other... imports USD 660m, exports USD 247m, top source India 72%
  • Salts of oxometallic or peroxometallic acids: n.e.c. in heading no. 2841 imports USD 1.9bn, exports USD 1.5bn, top source South Korea 95%
  • Copper: foil, backed with paper, paperboard, plastics or similar backing... imports USD 992m, exports USD 653m, top source Taiwan 48%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 2598 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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