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The twenty imports Bulgaria is best placed to replace.

Bulgaria imported USD 40bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 39bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 2.9bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
125products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
1220products Bulgaria already exports well
750product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Bulgaria already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Bulgaria would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Bulgaria does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Rubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), articles n.e.c. in heading no. 4016, of non-cellular rubberHS 401699

    Comes fromTurkey 66%, 68 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), tubing, piping and... (exports USD 226m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 24m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 100m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1); Turkey supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 100mup 34% on 2022
  2. 2

    Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially colouredHS 252329

    Comes fromTurkey 87%, 10 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron pyrites: unroasted (exports USD 68m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 19m
    Countries that export it well54

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 52m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); Turkey supplies 87 per cent (2).

    USD 52mup 32% on 2022
  3. 3

    Iron or steel: structures and parts thereof, n.e.c. in heading 7308HS 730890

    Comes fromTurkey 28%, 54 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow... (exports USD 176m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 90m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 59m
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 195m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2).

    USD 195mup 36% on 2022
  4. 4

    Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matterHS 170199

    Comes fromUkraine 43%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugars: glucose and glucose syrup, not containing fructose or... (exports USD 88m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 26m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 25m
    Countries that export it well44

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 124m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 26 per cent (1); Ukraine supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 124mdown 0% on 2022
  5. 5

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromEgypt 48%, 31 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate... (exports USD 191m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 13m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 25m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 107m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1); Egypt supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 107mdown 63% on 2022
  6. 6

    Luminaires and light fittings: chandeliers and electric ceiling or wall light fittings: (excluding those used for...HS 940511

    Comes fromChina 78%, 42 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBedding and similar furnishing articles: n.e.c. in heading no. 9404... (exports USD 102m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 23m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 49m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 44m, top 24 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1); China supplies 78 per cent (2).

    USD 44mdown 15% on 2022
  7. 7

    Copper: waste and scrapHS 740400

    Comes fromRomania 21%, 38 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodes (exports USD 1.9bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 81m
    Countries that export it well76

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 636m, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 29 per cent (1).

    USD 636mup 15% on 2022
  8. 8

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), cylinder capacity...HS 870332

    Comes fromGermany 26%, 49 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMotorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles: fitted with auxiliary... (exports USD 319m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 42m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 1.5bn
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 319m, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1).

    USD 319mup 72% on 2022
  9. 9

    Aluminium: unwrought, alloysHS 760120

    Comes fromTurkey 28%, 33 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: alloys, bars, rods and profiles, other than hollow (exports USD 129m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 26m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 128m
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 240m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1).

    USD 240mdown 19% on 2022
  10. 10

    Plastics: other articles n.e.c. in chapter 39HS 392690

    Comes fromGermany 24%, 103 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics: of polymers of propylene, plates, sheets, film, foil and... (exports USD 228m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 116m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 234m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 48 per cent (1).

    USD 234mup 7% on 2022
  11. 11

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)HS 401110

    Comes fromChina 20%, 50 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: vulcanised (other than hard rubber), tubing, piping and... (exports USD 226m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 6m; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 102m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 156m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1).

    USD 156mup 4% on 2022
  12. 12

    Iron or steel: articles n.e.c. in heading 7326HS 732690

    Comes fromGermany 21%, 79 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or steel (excluding cast iron): tubes, pipes and hollow... (exports USD 176m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 112m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 21m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 130m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 31 per cent (1).

    USD 130mdown 7% on 2022
  13. 13

    Vehicle parts and accessories: n.e.c. in heading no. 8708HS 870899

    Comes fromGermany 21%, 83 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMotorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles: fitted with auxiliary... (exports USD 319m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 208m; 9 more lines in the heading, USD 282m
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 130m, top 7 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1).

    USD 130mup 23% on 2022
  14. 14

    Dog or cat food: put up for retail sale, used in animal feedingHS 230910

    Comes fromHungary 20%, 52 source countries
    Nearest export strengthDog or cat food: (not put up for retail sale), used in animal feeding (exports USD 214m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 13m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 98m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 46 per cent (1).

    USD 98mup 28% on 2022
  15. 15

    Insulated electric conductors: for a voltage not exceeding 1000 volts, fitted with connectorsHS 854442

    Comes fromChina 18%, 80 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBoards, panels, consoles, desks and other bases: for electric... (exports USD 610m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 48m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 45m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 89m, top 10 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1).

    USD 89mdown 21% on 2022
  16. 16

    Footwear: (other than sportswear), with outer soles of rubber or plastics and uppers of textile materialsHS 640419

    Comes fromChina 41%, 83 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: parts, uppers and parts thereof, other than stiffeners (exports USD 50m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 15m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 40m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 71m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); China supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 71mup 11% on 2022
  17. 17

    Trailers and semi-trailers: (other than tanker type)HS 871639

    Comes fromGermany 44%, 39 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMotorcycles (including mopeds) and cycles: fitted with auxiliary... (exports USD 319m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 25m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 28m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 56m, top 18 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); Germany supplies 44 per cent (1).

    USD 56mdown 49% on 2022
  18. 18

    Iron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, in irregularly wound coils, containing indentations, ribs, grooves...HS 721310

    Comes fromGreece 42%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: bars and rods, hot-rolled, hot-drawn or... (exports USD 220m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 79m
    Countries that export it well23

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 49m, top 21 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 40 per cent (1); Greece supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 49mdown 6% on 2022
  19. 19

    Furniture: wooden, for bedroom useHS 940350

    Comes fromTurkey 33%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthBedding and similar furnishing articles: n.e.c. in heading no. 9404... (exports USD 102m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 26m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 13m
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 45m, top 23 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2).

    USD 45mup 30% on 2022
  20. 20

    Jerseys, pullovers, cardigans, waistcoats and similar articles: of man-made fibres, knitted or crochetedHS 611030

    Comes fromChina 32%, 83 source countries
    Nearest export strengthT-shirts, singlets and other vests: of cotton, knitted or crocheted (exports USD 127m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 42m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 45m, top 23 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Bulgaria's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2).

    USD 45mup 7% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Bulgaria already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no.... imports USD 1.4bn, exports USD 955m, top source Germany 18%
  • Cigarettes: containing tobacco imports USD 280m, exports USD 116m, top source Romania 38%
  • Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary forms imports USD 192m, exports USD 65m, top source Greece 27%
  • Copper: wire, of refined copper, of which the maximum cross-sectional... imports USD 177m, exports USD 61m, top source Turkey 92%
  • Ammonia: anhydrous imports USD 148m, exports USD 37m, top source Trinidad and Tobago 47%
  • Poly(ethylene terephthalate): in primary forms, having a viscosity of 78ml/g... imports USD 150m, exports USD 43m, top source Vietnam 61%
  • Waters: including mineral and aerated, containing added sugar or other... imports USD 154m, exports USD 50m, top source Hungary 27%
  • Tractors: n.e.c. in heading no 8701 (other than tractors of heading no 8709)... imports USD 135m, exports USD 48m, top source United States 39%
  • Tractors: road tractors for semi-trailers, with only compression-ignition... imports USD 168m, exports USD 101m, top source Netherlands 32%
  • Explosives: propellent powders imports USD 69m, exports USD 7m, top source Egypt 43%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 750 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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