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The twenty imports Brazil is best placed to replace.

Brazil imported USD 226bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 149bn. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 21bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
746products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
527products Brazil already exports well
1814product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Brazil already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Brazil would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Brazil does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Copper: refined, unwrought, cathodes and sections of cathodesHS 740311

    Comes fromChile 82%, 11 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCopper: strip, of a thickness exceeding 0.15mm, of copper-zinc base... (exports USD 144m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 2.6bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3); Chile supplies 82 per cent (2).

    USD 2.6bnup 31% on 2022
  2. 2

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, ammonium nitrate, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310230

    Comes fromRussia 91%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 5m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 4.1bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 299m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Russia supplies 91 per cent (2).

    USD 299mdown 11% on 2022
  3. 3

    Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight not exceeding 2000kgHS 880220

    Comes fromUnited States 93%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight... (exports USD 3.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 402m
    Countries that export it well24

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 264m, top 9 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 10 per cent (3); United States supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 264mup 118% on 2022
  4. 4

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: potassic, potassium chlorideHS 310420

    Comes fromRussia 41%, 20 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 23m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 92m
    Countries that export it well11

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 3.9bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); Russia supplies 41 per cent (1).

    USD 3.9bndown 59% on 2022
  5. 5

    Vehicles: with only compression-ignition internal combustion piston engine (diesel or semi-diesel), for transport of...HS 870421

    Comes fromArgentina 84%, 15 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston... (exports USD 1.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 294m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 110m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 3.6bn, top 0 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 18 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 84 per cent (2).

    USD 3.6bnup 27% on 2022
  6. 6

    Herbicides, anti-sprouting products and plant-growth regulators: other than containing goods of Subheading Note 1 to...HS 380893

    Comes fromChina 66%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFungicides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Note... (exports USD 169m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 140m; 4 more lines in the heading, USD 2.1bn
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 2.1bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 12 per cent (2); China supplies 66 per cent (2).

    USD 2.1bndown 39% on 2022
  7. 7

    Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity over 1000 but not over 1500ccHS 870322

    Comes fromArgentina 81%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthVehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston... (exports USD 1.3bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 1.2bn; 8 more lines in the heading, USD 6.7bn
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 1.2bn, top 1 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 21 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 81 per cent (2).

    USD 1.2bnup 15% on 2022
  8. 8

    Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, ethylene-alpha-olefin copolymers, having a specific gravity of less than 0.94HS 390140

    Comes fromUnited States 79%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEthylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific... (exports USD 469m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 17m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 911m
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 812m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 13 per cent (2); United States supplies 79 per cent (2).

    USD 812mup 23% on 2022
  9. 9

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: containing the three fertilizing elements nitrogen, phosphorus and potassiumHS 310520

    Comes fromRussia 57%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 116m; 5 more lines in the heading, USD 4.1bn
    Countries that export it well35

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 549m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Russia supplies 57 per cent (1).

    USD 549mdown 64% on 2022
  10. 10

    Wine: still, in containers holding 2 litres or lessHS 220421

    Comes fromChile 42%, 39 source countries
    Nearest export strengthUndenatured ethyl alcohol: of an alcoholic strength by volume of 80%... (exports USD 1.1bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 9m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 43m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 485m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 8 per cent (3); Chile supplies 42 per cent (1).

    USD 485mup 10% on 2022
  11. 11

    Sulphur of all kinds: other than sublimed, precipitated and colloidal sulphurHS 250300

    Comes fromUnited States 43%, 24 source countries
    Nearest export strengthMineral substances: n.e.c. in chapter 25 (exports USD 289m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 4m
    Countries that export it well21

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 277m, top 8 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 3 per cent (3); United States supplies 43 per cent (1).

    USD 277mdown 56% on 2022
  12. 12

    Cocoa beans: whole or broken, raw or roastedHS 180100

    Comes fromIvory Coast 100%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCocoa: butter, fat and oil (exports USD 297m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 879k
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 140m, top 16 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 1 per cent (3); Ivory Coast supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 140mup 373% on 2022
  13. 13

    Rubber: new pneumatic tyres, of a kind used on motor cars (including station wagons and racing cars)HS 401110

    Comes fromChina 71%, 45 source countries
    Nearest export strengthRubber: tyres n.e.c. in heading no. 4012 (exports USD 109m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 519m; 6 more lines in the heading, USD 1.1bn
    Countries that export it well28

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 897m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1); China supplies 71 per cent (2).

    USD 897mup 67% on 2022
  14. 14

    Alcohols: saturated monohydric, methanol (methyl alcohol)HS 290511

    Comes fromTrinidad and Tobago 33%, 21 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEthers: acyclic, and their halogenated, sulphonated, nitrated or... (exports USD 208m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 12 more lines in the heading, USD 452m
    Countries that export it well25

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 729m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3).

    USD 729mup 16% on 2022
  15. 15

    Sodium hydroxide (caustic soda): in aqueous solution (soda lye or liquid soda)HS 281512

    Comes fromUnited States 96%, 18 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium oxide: other than artificial corundum (exports USD 3.4bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 2m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 40m
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 612m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); United States supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 612mdown 47% on 2022
  16. 16

    Propylene, other olefin polymers: polypropylene in primary formsHS 390210

    Comes fromSaudi Arabia 27%, 48 source countries
    Nearest export strengthEthylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific... (exports USD 469m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 144m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 351m
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 599m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3).

    USD 599mup 32% on 2022
  17. 17

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: phosphatic, superphosphates, containing by weight 35% or more of diphosphorus...HS 310311

    Comes fromMorocco 70%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including... (exports USD 23m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3m; 2 more lines in the heading, USD 541m
    Countries that export it well8

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 591m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 34 per cent (1); Morocco supplies 70 per cent (2).

    USD 591mdown 29% on 2022
  18. 18

    Insulated electric conductors: ignition wiring sets and other wiring sets of a kind used in vehicles, aircraft or shipsHS 854430

    Comes fromParaguay 48%, 74 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical transformers: liquid dielectric, having a power handling... (exports USD 465m)
    Exports of this lineUSD 110m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 974m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 550m, top 4 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 15 per cent (2); Paraguay supplies 48 per cent (1).

    USD 550mup 28% on 2022
  19. 19

    Vegetable preparations: potatoes, prepared or preserved otherwise than by vinegar or acetic acid, frozenHS 200410

    Comes fromArgentina 52%, 17 source countries
    Nearest export strengthJuice: orange, frozen, unfermented, (not containing added spirit)... (exports USD 1.2bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 19m; 1 more line in the heading, USD 14m
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 457m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 14 per cent (2); Argentina supplies 52 per cent (1).

    USD 457mup 21% on 2022
  20. 20

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, plated or coated with aluminium zinc-alloysHS 721061

    Comes fromChina 99%, 8 source countries
    Nearest export strengthIron or non-alloy steel: semi-finished products of iron or non-alloy... (exports USD 3.5bn)
    Exports of this lineUSD 20m; 7 more lines in the heading, USD 896m
    Countries that export it well15

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 421m, top 5 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Brazil's export strengths in the top 32 per cent (1); China supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 421mup 2% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Brazil already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Floating or submersible drilling or production platforms imports USD 1.7bn, exports USD 528m, top source China 89%
  • Fungicides: other than containing goods specified in Subheading Note 1 to this... imports USD 794m, exports USD 169m, top source India 30%
  • Compressors: of a kind used in refrigerating equipment imports USD 643m, exports USD 278m, top source China 70%
  • Aeroplanes and other aircraft, except unmanned: of an unladen weight exceeding... imports USD 1.4bn, exports USD 1.1bn, top source United States 74%
  • Ethylene polymers: in primary forms, polyethylene having a specific gravity of... imports USD 623m, exports USD 469m, top source United States 64%
  • Boilers: watertube boilers with a steam production exceeding 45t per hour imports USD 145m, exports USD 12m, top source Switzerland 45%
  • Iron or steel (excluding cast iron or stainless steel): seamless, line pipe of... imports USD 354m, exports USD 246m, top source Germany 80%
  • Engines: reciprocating piston engines, of a kind used for the propulsion of... imports USD 192m, exports USD 96m, top source South Korea 98%
  • Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, other kinds including mixtures... imports USD 106m, exports USD 23m, top source Netherlands 71%
  • Harvesting machinery: n.e.c. in heading no. 8433 imports USD 259m, exports USD 191m, top source United States 79%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 1814 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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