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The twenty imports Afghanistan is best placed to replace.

Afghanistan imported USD 3.5bn of manufactured goods in 2024 and exported USD 95m. These are the twenty that sit closest to what it already makes well and where one country supplies most of them.

USD 1.0bnthe twenty, imported in 2024
29products imported at scale, not yet exported well, and close to existing strengths
203products Afghanistan already exports well
64product lines imported at USD 10m or more
The twenty

Demand, capability, exposure. Nothing else is claimed.

Each line shows the import bill, where it comes from, the nearest thing Afghanistan already exports well, and how many countries make it. It does not say whether a plant in Afghanistan would pay. That reason is not in any trade record, and it is the maker's question.

This edition is trade and capability only, scored out of 8. The UK edition adds which public bodies buy each product and which region holds the capability; those layers are built only where a country publishes contract awards and regional trade, and Afghanistan does not publish them in a form this record can read yet.

  1. 1

    Sugars: sucrose, chemically pure, in solid form, not containing added flavouring or colouring matterHS 170199

    Comes fromPakistan 96%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSugar confectionery: chewing gum, whether or not sugar-coated, not... (exports USD 142k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 135k
    Countries that export it well44

    Score 8 of 8: import bill USD 230m, top 2 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 6 per cent (3); Pakistan supplies 96 per cent (2).

    USD 230mup 139% on 2022
  2. 2

    Cement: portland, other than white, whether or not artificially colouredHS 252329

    Comes fromPakistan 93%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSteatite: natural, crushed, powdered, whether or not roughly trimmed... (exports USD 4m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well54

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 85m, top 11 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 2 per cent (3); Pakistan supplies 93 per cent (2).

    USD 85mup 29% on 2022
  3. 3

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: nitrogenous, urea, whether or not in aqueous solutionHS 310210

    Comes fromUzbekistan 100%, 1 source country
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 7 of 8: import bill USD 62m, top 19 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 9 per cent (3); Uzbekistan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 62mup 111% on 2022
  4. 4

    Fertilizers, mineral or chemical: diammonium hydrogenorthophosphate (diammonium phosphate)HS 310530

    Comes fromUzbekistan 95%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 25m
    Countries that export it well17

    Score 6 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 33 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 5 per cent (3); Uzbekistan supplies 95 per cent (2).

    USD 34mfrom USD 4m in 2022
  5. 5

    Medicaments: consisting of mixed or unmixed products n.e.c. in heading no. 3004, for therapeutic or prophylactic uses...HS 300490

    Comes fromPakistan 59%, 28 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this lineUSD 89k; 3 more lines in the heading, USD 113m
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 169m, top 3 per cent of candidates (3); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 45 per cent (1); Pakistan supplies 59 per cent (1).

    USD 169mup 35% on 2022
  6. 6

    Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of textured polyester filaments, printedHS 540754

    Comes fromChina 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthYarn, artificial: filament, monofilament (less than 67 decitex), of... (exports USD 56k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 133m
    Countries that export it well5

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 61m, top 20 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 38 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 61mup 194% on 2022
  7. 7

    Fabrics, woven: of synthetic staple fibres, containing 85% or more by weight of polyester staple fibres, other than...HS 551219

    Comes fromChina 92%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFabrics, woven: of synthetic staple fibres n.e.c. in chapter 55... (exports USD 40k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well13

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 45m, top 25 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 33 per cent (1); China supplies 92 per cent (2).

    USD 45mup 394% on 2022
  8. 8

    Aluminium: casks, drums, cans, boxes and the like for any material (not compressed or liquefied gas), 300l capacity or...HS 761290

    Comes fromPakistan 100%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAluminium: table, kitchen or other household articles and parts... (exports USD 5m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well42

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 43m, top 28 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 25 per cent (2); Pakistan supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 43mdown 31% on 2022
  9. 9

    Oil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the form of pellets, resulting from the extraction of...HS 230400

    Comes fromIndia 77%, 4 source countries
    Nearest export strengthOil-cake and other solid residues: whether or not ground or in the... (exports USD 20k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 38k
    Countries that export it well18

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 34m, top 34 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 16 per cent (2); India supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 34mup 12% on 2022
  10. 10

    Food preparations: of flour, meal, starch, malt extract or milk products, for uses n.e.c. in heading no. 1901HS 190190

    Comes fromPakistan 65%, 9 source countries
    Nearest export strengthAnimal products: n.e.c. in chapter 5
    Exports of this lineUSD 3k; 1 more line in the heading, USD 11m
    Countries that export it well39

    Score 5 of 8: import bill USD 29m, top 38 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 19 per cent (2); Pakistan supplies 65 per cent (2).

    USD 29mdown 16% on 2022
  11. 11

    Food preparations: n.e.c. in item no. 2106.10HS 210690

    Comes fromPakistan 59%, 23 source countries
    Nearest export strengthPlastics n.e.c. in heading no. 3915: waste, parings and scrap
    Exports of this lineUSD 188k
    Countries that export it well51

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 82m, top 13 per cent of candidates (2); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 28 per cent (1); Pakistan supplies 59 per cent (1).

    USD 82mdown 34% on 2022
  12. 12

    Fabrics, woven: containing 85% or more by weight of cotton, unbleached, plain weave, weighing not more than 100g/m2HS 520811

    Comes fromChina 100%, 2 source countries
    Nearest export strengthCotton: not carded or combed (exports USD 226m)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well10

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 36m, top 30 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 30 per cent (1); China supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 36ma year
  13. 13

    Electric accumulators: lead-acid, of a kind used for starting piston engines, including separators, whether or not...HS 850710

    Comes fromPakistan 76%, 7 source countries
    Nearest export strengthElectrical apparatus: lightning arresters, voltage limiters and... (exports USD 66k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 3k
    Countries that export it well27

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 24m, top 45 per cent of candidates (1); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 44 per cent (1); Pakistan supplies 76 per cent (2).

    USD 24mdown 48% on 2022
  14. 14

    Track suits and other garments n.e.c.: women's or girls', of man-made fibres (not knitted or crocheted)HS 621143

    Comes fromIndia 77%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSinglets and other vests, bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar... (exports USD 43k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 10k
    Countries that export it well33

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 16m, top 67 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 11 per cent (2); India supplies 77 per cent (2).

    USD 16mdown 9% on 2022
  15. 15

    Dresses: women's or girls', of synthetic fibres (not knitted or crocheted)HS 620443

    Comes fromIndia 99%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthSinglets and other vests, bathrobes, dressing gowns and similar... (exports USD 43k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 88k
    Countries that export it well32

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 13m, top 88 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 17 per cent (2); India supplies 99 per cent (2).

    USD 13mfrom USD 2m in 2022
  16. 16

    Medium density fibreboard (MDF), of a thickness exceeding 9 mmHS 441114

    Comes fromPakistan 90%, 3 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded; 1 more line in the heading, USD 19m
    Countries that export it well30

    Score 4 of 8: import bill USD 11m, top 95 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 20 per cent (2); Pakistan supplies 90 per cent (2).

    USD 11mup 111% on 2022
  17. 17

    Iron or non-alloy steel: in coils, flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, cold-rolled, of a thickness of 0.5mm or more but...HS 720917

    Comes fromKazakhstan 86%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well22

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 20m, top 52 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 47 per cent (1); Kazakhstan supplies 86 per cent (2).

    USD 20mfrom USD 57k in 2022
  18. 18

    Vehicles: with only spark-ignition internal combustion piston engine, cylinder capacity not over 1000ccHS 870321

    Comes fromIndia 100%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthTanker trailers and tanker semi-trailers (exports USD 463k)
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 19m, top 56 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 50 per cent (1); India supplies 100 per cent (2).

    USD 19mup 446% on 2022
  19. 19

    Footwear: n.e.c. in heading no. 6402, (other than just covering the ankle), with outer soles and uppers of rubber or...HS 640299

    Comes fromChina 80%, 5 source countries
    Nearest export strengthFootwear: with outer soles of leather, uppers consisting of leather... (exports USD 20k)
    Exports of this lineUSD 11k
    Countries that export it well16

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 16m, top 66 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 41 per cent (1); China supplies 80 per cent (2).

    USD 16mdown 15% on 2022
  20. 20

    Iron or non-alloy steel: flat-rolled, width 600mm or more, (not corrugated), plated or coated with zinc (not...HS 721049

    Comes fromKazakhstan 63%, 6 source countries
    Nearest export strengthnone in the same chapter
    Exports of this linenone recorded
    Countries that export it well26

    Score 3 of 8: import bill USD 15m, top 70 per cent of candidates (0); proximity to Afghanistan's export strengths in the top 36 per cent (1); Kazakhstan supplies 63 per cent (2).

    USD 15mup 39% on 2022

One line per customs heading. Products Afghanistan already exports well and still imports are below, because they are a different conversation. No employment figures appear on this page, by decision.

Made here already, still imported

Scale conversations, not capability ones.

  • Tobacco: other than homogenised or reconstituted or smoking imports USD 13m, exports USD 547k, top source India 99%
  • Nuts and other seeds: whether or not containing added sugar, other sweetening... imports USD 10m, exports USD 2m, top source India 38%
How the twenty were chosen

Three scores, each from a field the record carries.

Import bill, 0 to 3, by percentile among the 64 lines imported at USD 10m or more: above the median one point, top quarter two, top tenth three.

Proximity to export strengths, 0 to 3, on the same percentiles: the product-space method (Hidalgo, Klinger, Barabasi and Hausmann, Science 2007) on CEPII's BACI file of every bilateral trade flow for 2024, 157 countries and 5,388 products. Two products are close when the countries that export one well tend to export the other well. Only products in the upper half for proximity can enter the list at all: best placed is a proximity claim.

Supply concentration, 0 to 2: one point when a single country supplies 40 per cent or more, two at 60 per cent.

Scope. Manufactured goods, customs chapters 16 to 96, excluding ores, fuels and precious metals. Primary agriculture is out of scope for a page about manufacture.

What it cannot tell you

A map of where to look.

Trade data says what crossed the border, not why. Cost, scale, patents, tariffs and the plain fact that a supplier is good at it are all invisible here. The world file reconciles what each pair of countries reports, so a national customs file would differ in detail. Nothing on this page is a forecast or a promise.

Source: CEPII BACI, HS22, version 202601, years 2022 to 2024. Edition of 2026-11-02. The UK edition with its procurement and regional layers is at /made-here/.

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